Tuesday Storms are the Focus

Real-Time Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s Weather was just terribly gloomy. It was just horrible. Clouds were low for much of the day, they hung around and kept it much cooler than I anticipated; however, the high did make it to 62°F at 11:07 pm last night. But overall? Yesterday’s weather was terrible.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville
Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Forecast Summary

Today: Showers and storms likely. Highs around 66°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, with lows around 50°F.

  • Bus stop: ⛈/🌧  57°F
  • Lunch hour: ⛈/🌧  60°F
  • School is out: ☁️  66°F
  • Evening time:⛈/🌧  65°F

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, with showers in the evening time. Highs around 57°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, with lows falling to around 32°F.

  • Bus stop: ☁️  51°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️/🌧  54°F
  • School is out: 🌧  57°F
  • Evening time: 🌧/☁️  49°F

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, becoming partly sunny by the afternoon. Highs only around 40 at midnight, which drops into the mid 30s for most of the day. Overnight, look for clear skies and lows around 23°F.

  • Bus stop: ☁️  32°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌥  34°F
  • School is out: 🌤  35°F
  • Evening time: ☀️  30°F

Discussion

This forecast period will largely be dominated by the weather we are seeing right now. After today, not too much looks to go on in terms of interesting sensible weather.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

And speaking of what is going on right now…can you believe the lightning!? I can’t believe it, and I expected thunderstorms to be ongoing this morning across the region. This has been one of the crazier lightning shows that I have seen since July, especially considering it is currently February.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

One thing to watch for this morning and into this afternoon is the threat for flash flooding. The storms have developed in a manner that is allowing for them to train in a similar direction and over similar areas consistently. This leads to heavy rain for extended periods of time, and flash flooding.

The WPC outlined parts of the region in a discussion for flash flooding this morning. h/t WPC
The WPC outlined parts of the region in a discussion for flash flooding this morning. h/t WPC

This should all move out of the region around late morning, giving way to mostly cloudy skies behind the rain. This will limit our potential warming that we thought we’d see. As a result, I think highs “only” top out in the mid 60s. Southwesterly flow can only do so much, especially when precip is hanging tough. It’ll also be pretty dag on breezy today, so watch for that!

Looking windy today! h/t pivotalweather.com
Looking windy today! h/t pivotalweather.com

One thing to mention is the severe threat. While there is still a chance that we see one, I don’t think that chance is very high. The storms this morning should help to keep the atmosphere stable, and keep the severe threat low.

Even with the morning storms, we are still in a slight risk. h/t SPC
Even with the morning storms, we are still in a slight risk. h/t SPC

Tomorrow is interesting. A disturbance looks to propagate southeastward out of the central Plains towards us. The NAM and GFS are very different in regards to the impacts this brings to our region, with the NAM showing decent rain and the GFS showing very little precip.

This was my original way to figure out which model to choose, but I decided against this path. h/t giphy.com
This was my original way to figure out which model to choose, but I decided against this path. h/t giphy.com

Because the is support elsewhere for the NAM’s solution, I’m gonna roll with the NAM model on this one. I don’t think that there will be as much precipitation as it depicts, but I do think there will be a good bit. This disturbance will roll into the region mid-afternoon, and should begin to produce precip by that point as well. Clouds look to be present through the day, as well.

The NAM shows some precipitation tomorrow afternoon and evening in association with an easterly moving disturbance. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM shows some precipitation tomorrow afternoon and evening in association with an easterly moving disturbance. h/t pivotalweather.com

Temps tomorrow will cool down behind the cold front today, and will likely be sitting in the mid 50s during the day. After that system passes through, another colder shot of air is ushered in for Thursday.

It is looking cold on Thursday. h/t pivotalweather.com
It is looking cold on Thursday. h/t pivotalweather.com

Thursday looks to be the nicest of the forecast period. Clouds will clear through the day, and we’ll probably see the sun!

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Look for the high on Thursday to be in the low 40s because it’ll be hit at midnight as temps are falling.


Today’s Key Points

  • Storms dominate this morning
  • Lightning and heavy rain are the main threats
  • Isolated severe weather threat today
    • Slim to none with the storms ongoing now
  • Temps cool slightly before more rain tomorrow
  • Temps plummet for Thursday

Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!