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Real-time Bowling Green Weather Radar
Yesterday’s Weather
Yesterday was only the beginning of the weirdness. Yesterday’s temperature rose all day; rising from 17°F to 51°F. You did read that correctly. That is good for an increase of 34°F. Let me try to put that into perspective: think about it being 32°F to start the day. By the end of that day, it would feel like Spring and we’d all be having a barbecue.
Forecast Summary
*Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 pm tonight until 11 am tomorrow*
Today: Crazy. Cloudy, breezy and isolated rain. Highs nearing 70°F. Overnight, look for heavy rain/thunderstorms to freezing rain to sleet to light snowfall. Accumulations look light. Lows around 28°F.
- Wake up: ☁️/🌧 57°F
- Lunch hour: ☁️/iso’t 🌧 60°F
- Evening time: 🌧/⛈ 70°F
- Overnight: ⛈->🌨 68°F⬇️28°F
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, with a high of 40°F, falling to 25°F. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies with lows around 16°F.
- Wake up: ☁️ 28°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤 27°F
- Evening time: 🌤 25°F
- Overnight: 🌕 16°F
Monday: Partly cloudy skies, with highs around 33°F. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies, with lows around 23°F.
- Wake up: 🌤 17°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤 25°F
- Evening time: 🌤 33°F
- Overnight: 🌕 23°F
Discussion
Well…This is about to be one of the wilder discussion periods. As in, this is gonna be so awesome, weird and crazy all at the same time.
So, currently, we have a surface low pressure system centered across southern Missouri, with a warm front extending northeastward into central Indiana and Ohio. This places us firmly within the warm sector, and this is easily seen on the KY Mesonet graph of temperature data.
This low pressure system has been pushing up against a decaying Arctic high pressure system, currently centered across South Carolina. This has created a tight pressure gradient across this portion of the world, which has really helped to raise our temperatures up, and will continue to do so through the day. Southwesterly flow is anticipated to become further entrenched as the low propagates northeastward into central Indiana and northern Ohio through the day.
This is where the high of 70 comes into play. Even under cloudy skies, anticipate the possibility that we end up making it to 70°F not matter what. If we do see breaks in the clouds, expect that to become a more likely possibility this afternoon.
By this evening, the mega-front will be approaching from the west, and will likely be encountering a strongly forced area of precipitation to our west. This will quickly propagate our way, with the front right behind it.
Given the amount of wind dynamics in the atmosphere, and the airmass ahead of it, I think severe weather is a threat with the initial thunderstorms along the front. Wind damage will be the main threat, and the SPC currently has highlighted us in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Either way, gusty winds will likely occur ahead of the front, and then will occur as the front is passing through.
Then we move into the post-frontal passage portion of this forecast. This is the dicey portion. Currently the National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire region from 11 pm until 11 am tomorrow morning. We are anticipating a change over to freezing rain, sleet and, eventually, light snowfall overnight. While significant accumulations aren’t expected, the roads are expected to get icy overnight as the temps come crashing down.
Temps will fall from the upper 60s late evening to the upper 20s by early morning, which will cause major issues. Expect the major threat to be the formation of black ice on roadways. A flash freeze is very possible with this set up, and this is a concerning threat. Please, please, please take all caution tomorrow morning with travels. The roadways are likely to be slick in spots. And remember: even if there are no major accumulations of anything, the roadways can still be dangerous. This is a unique set up, and should be treated with caution and care.
After this all move through, it gets cold. Clouds look to hang tough until tomorrow afternoon, and move on out, leaving partly cloudy skies as the main weather entity through Monday. Temps likely won’t get above freezing until Tuesday, and that is quite alright with me.
Today’s Key Points
- Crazy forecast period
- Temp swings are absolutely wild; a 35°F-40°F is expected by tomorrow morning
- Windy today; temps approach 70°F
- Strong storms possible along the front
- Very gusty winds along and after the frontal passage
- Wintry precip to start after midnight
- No major accumulations expected
- Black ice will be a major threat by tomorrow morning
Lots of key points, but that is what you get with a wild forecast. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter and Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest on the severe weather threat, and on the winter weather threat. Have a great day everyone!