at 9:09 AM by Pierce Larkin

The Week in Tropical Weather

I have come to the conclusion that I post way too much about the tropics. I am no expert in tropical meteorology, I wouldn’t even call myself an amateur. Tropical Meteorology is a much different animal than mid-latitude meteorology, and as such, it is difficult for me to apply my knowledge of mid-latitude meteorology to tropical meteorology. However, in light of that, I will be establishing a weekly post about the Tropics. Whether is be the eastern Pacific or the Atlantic or the western Pacific, the Tropics are fairly active around this time of the year. So, without further ado, I give you the first installment of: The Week in Tropical Weather.

How do I put in perspective what has gone on the past couple of weeks in the Tropical Atlantic? Honestly? It has been pretty ridiculous to watch a season that had wimpy, weak and disorganized storms, only to have the first Category 5 Hurricane since 2007 form in the Atlantic. Oh, and we had another Major, Category 4 storm affect Bermuda today.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Matthew was, and really still is, an incredibly impactful, destructive storm. Matthew made landfall twice in the north central Caribbean last week, and then proceeded to slowly move towards the US. In the meantime, it affected several islands in the Bahamas, wreaking havoc there for the second October in a row.

The track of Hurricane Matthew.
The track of Hurricane Matthew.

Honestly? Matthew is likely to be a multi-billion dollar storm. He made landfall in Haiti, and ravaged the area. When I say ravaged, I mean ravaged. It was devastating to see the destruction in Haiti, which is already an under-developed, poor country.

Matthew then trekked up and made landfall on the far eastern tip of Cuba, and then he made his way through the Bahamas. Matthew at one point looked as if he would strike eastern Florida, with NWS offices putting out products about catastrophic destruction and life-threatening impacts.

This was a tough storm because of this. Matthew had a small core of strong winds at the surface, and this led to only a small area window of geographical space that could see the strongest winds. Meteorologists did an excellent job at conveying this right up until 12ish hours before the storm. People heeded the warnings, evacuated, and there didn’t seem to be a crazy backfiring of hype. Well…

Everything got a bit crazy before and after Matthew’s approach to Florida. He strengthened back to a Category 4 storm, and the NHC anticipated him to approach the space coast, make landfall or come very close, and then propagate parallel to the coastline. He did one of those two of those three things, and the one he didn’t do will likely lead to issues in the future with public trust.

See, Matthew came very close, but his strongest winds remained off-shore almost the entire time that he was paralleling the US coastline. The winds took a lot of the publicity away from what was the more dangerous and prevalent issue at hand: storm surge and flooding. Matthew’s approach led to several hours of onshore flow across much of norther Florida and up into South Carolina. This pushed tons of water into areas that haven’t seen storm surge in quite sometime, and into very flood-prone areas.

Additionally, as Matthew approached the Carolinas, he began to interact with a trough over the Great Lakes region and moving into the eastern US. The interaction with Matthew acted to enhance precipitation across North and South Carolina. This was the part lacking in communication. Meteorologists always struggle with communicating flooding threats, as flooding is never one of the issues that comes to the general public’s mind in Hurricane Situations.

But this level of flooding couldn’t really have been communicated. The flooding occurring in North Carolina is a product of seeing up to 15″ of rain in less than 24 hours. This has led to astronomical flooding across the region, and the flooding has been ongoing since last Saturday.

This will be the big cost, as the strongest winds really remained offshore. This storm has been devastating in central and eastern North Carolina. I have some personal connections there, and it really does break my heart to see such devastating flooding to occur in a great region.

In other news, Hurricane Nicole is really weird. Seriously. Just look at her track!

The track of Hurricane Nicole. h/t wunderground.com
The track of Hurricane Nicole. h/t wunderground.com

Nicole then managed to intensify into a strong, Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday as it headed towards Bermuda. It is just all insane. Probably the peak of Nicole’s life as a tropical cyclone was last week when it made its first run at Hurricane Status. Just enjoy this picture right here, because I’m not sure the next time we’ll see something like it.

Major Hurricane Matthew as it approached the Florida coast had a partner in crime to its east as Nicole became a hurricane. h/t @islivingston
Major Hurricane Matthew as it approached the Florida coast had a partner in crime to its east as Nicole became a hurricane. h/t @islivingston