at 9:21 PM by Pierce Larkin

A Running History of Hurricane Matthew

As many of you know, Hurricane Matthew is on a tear across the north-central Caribbean right now. Matthew formed on Wednesday of last week, and hasn’t looked back since. He has posed a threat to the central Caribbean, and now is posing a threat to the US. This is his story.

Wednesday, September 28th.

Matthew was born around 10 am central time in the far eastern Caribbean. Matthew started off rolling, as his initial advisory featured 60 mph sustained winds.

Matthew was forecast to become a Category Two hurricane in the central Caribbean, and then was forecast to make landfall in Cuba and then move into the Bahamas. By the end of the day, Matthew had organized significantly and had become a 65 mph tropical storm.

Thursday, September 29th.

We all wake up to a fairly sheared Tropical Storm Matthew.

Despite the relative disorganization due to shear, the storm was still intensifying. The pressure had fallen into the 990 mb’s range, and the winds had risen to 70 mph sustained. Southwesterly flow was the main reason that his center was displaced to the southwest of the convection.

By the evening time, Matthew had returned to his convection, and became a 75 mph sustained wind hurricane over the eastern Caribbean. As the evening progressed onward, Hurricane Matthew continued to look more and more like a Hurricane capable of becoming strong, and rapidly intensifying.

By the 11 PM advisory on Thursday, Matthew had become an 80 mph storm, with 983 mb as the central pressure. Matthew would never look back from this point.

One of the stories that became very apparent at this point was the incredible forecast uncertainty involved with Matthew’s future track and intensity. The spread among the models was very high, and seemingly increased as Matthew continued along his path.

Friday, September 30th.

By early Friday morning, Matthew had become a 100 mph hurricane. After this, Hurricane Matthew would proceed to absolutely go bonkers. Hurricane Matthew was facing upwards of 20 knots of southwesterly shear across the southern Caribbean, and managed to rapidly intensify at a rate that put it in the upper percentile of hurricanes of all time.

Hurricane Matthew intensified all the way to Category 5 status by Friday night – the most intense Atlantic Hurricane since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

Hurricane Matthew was essentially dropping jaws. Not only was his intensification rate remarkable, but he did it in an area that doesn’t favor this type of intensification, and he did it with moderate shear affecting him.

In addition to this, Hurricane Matthew saw an increase in maximum sustained winds by 70 knots in 24 hours, which put him among only six other Atlantic Hurricanes in recorded history. Matthew shattered forecasts for his intensity, and proved that forecasting Hurricane intensity in the short term is ridiculously difficult. Just look at what the NHC forecasted for intensity just Thursday night:

The intensity forecast for Hurricane Matthew from Thursday night. h/t NHC
The intensity forecast for Hurricane Matthew from Thursday night. h/t NHC

Matthew was forecast to be a moderate Category ONE hurricane by 11 pm on Friday night. By 11 pm Friday night? He had sustained winds of 160 mph and had become the first Category 5 in the Atlantic in over 9 years. The intensification of Hurricane Matthew on Friday was truly amazing.

In addition to the incredible satellite presentation of Hurricane Matthew, his storm structure overall was odd. On Friday, and this lasted through Saturday and would appear again on Sunday, Hurricane Matthew developed an enormous blob on the eastern side of the storm. Often times, this blob had convection as deep or deeper than the inner core itself.

It was an interesting time in tropical meteorology on Friday, and I won’t soon forget the ridiculousness that was Weather Twitter on Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday/Sunday, October 1st & 2nd.

Hurricane Matthew weakened (relative term) back to a strong, powerful Category 4 hurricane, and continued to churn across the central Caribbean. Matthew finally took to much anticipated turn to the north on Saturday, but took his sweet time actually moving northward.

 

Matthew kept rolling through the central Caribbean, taking his sweet time moving northward. There were various fluctuations in his strength, but it maintained a Category 4 intensity throughout. Even though Matthew went through a complete eye wall replacement cycle, he sustained Category 4 strength throughout his trek northward.

Monday-Today, October 3rd & 4th.

This is where everything has gotten interesting. The storm has continued marching northward, and has remained a Category 4 storm since it became one on Friday, setting all kinds of records.

Matthew was known to be heading for Haiti just a few days ago, and he has marched towards the country steadily. Matthew completed an eye wall replacement cycle last night, and managed to continue strengthening up until landfall this morning.

At landfall, Matthew was a 145 mph Hurricane, with a minimum pressure of 934 mb. He made landfall on the western tip of Haiti, which is the last place that needs a hurricane. The town was Les Anglais.

Unfortunately, sunlight tomorrow is likely to bring some grim sights across the Haitian nation, and that is very concerning. Keep those folks in your thoughts and prayers this evening.

The interesting thing about today has been the vast westward shift in the forecast track as it approaches the United States. Forecast models have drastically shifted the track towards a landfall along the eastern coast of Florida. As a result, Hurricane Watches have been issued for much of the eastern coast.

The forecast track of Hurricane Matthew. h/t NHC
The forecast track of Hurricane Matthew. h/t NHC

If you have family in that region, be sure to alert them of the potential danger. Always tell them to seek the advice of their emergency managers, and to heed instructions on evacuations. Matthew looks more and more dangerous the further that time extends, so it is critical that good, useful information is disseminated. As always, refer to nhc.noaa.gov for the latest information.