"Maybe Storms?" Bowling Green Weather

Real time Bowling Green Weather Radar

Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s weather was fairly cloudy, honestly. The moisture streaming northward along the stationary front to our west kept clouds prevalent across our region, and even some showers moved into the region last evening. Our temp forecast for yesterday from the past couple of days was great, but in terms of precip…not so much.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville — Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Forecast Summary

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, with isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 86°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, with lows around 73°F.

Wake Up: ⛅️ 73°F
Lunch Hour: 🌤/🌥 85°F
Evening Time: ⛅️/⛈ 85°F

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy, with isolated thunderstorms possible in the evening. Highs around 88°F. Overnight, look for partly cloud skies, with lows around 72°F.

Bus Stop: ⛅️ 74°F
Lunch Hour: ⛅️ 86°F
School Lets Out: ⛅️/⛈ 88°F
Evening Time: ⛅️/⛈ 85°F

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies, with scattered storms in the evening. Highs around 87°F. Overnight, look for isolated storms, with lows around 73°F.

Bus Stop: ⛅️ 74°F
Lunch Hour: ⛅️/⛈ 86°F
School Lets Out: ⛅️/⛈ 87°F
Evening Time: ⛅️/⛈ 85°F

Discussion

Well, the past couple of days have been a busted forecast on my part for sure!

This is a visual representation of my forecast failure. h/t giphy.com

Let me explain why that has happened before I get into the forecast. The set up we were expecting going into this weekend was the presence of a weak trough moving southeastward towards our region, dragging with it a cold front. This was anticipated to encounter the very rich and deep moisture profile present across much of the eastern and southeastern portions of the country. To the east, an anomalous ridge was expected to develop along the east coast, and the biggest question was its western extent. For several days, we were either on the eastern edge of the heavy precip or within the axis of the heavy precip. Well…

The WPC flash flooding outlook for today. h/t WPC

The precip has fallen mainly to our west. h/t NWS Paducah

I was wrong by a lot with Friday’s forecast for the weekend, and for that I apologize. The ridge across the western Atlantic extended further west than I originally anticipated. I didn’t anticipate us to get the majority of the rainfall, but I did expect at least something. The ridge has prevented the eastward movement of the semi-stationary front, inherently limiting our rainfall chances.

Anyways, this is still having a pretty significant impact on our weather as a whole. Today and tomorrow? This ridge will still keep our weather under control.

While there is still a highly anomalous amount of moisture in the atmosphere, much of that has shifted to the semi-stationary front to our west, and is concentrated along that.

00z PWAT observations, showing where the most anomalous plume of moisture is along the semi-stationary front, denoted by the blue and red lines. h/t https://www.weather.gov/images/unr/soo/pw/PWplot00z.png

Expect for the majority of the rainfall to stay west of our region for today and tomorrow, as the ridge will continue to prevent an eastward shift in the larger scale trough axis, and the surface semi-stationary front.

The SREF shows how strong the ridge will be tomorrow to our east. This will keep much of the rainfall to our west. h/t cms.met.psu.edu/sref/GEFS

The precip forecast for the next 3 days from the WPC. They expect the heaviest rainfall to fall to our west. h/t WPC

I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two during the afternoon and evening hours both days, but overall, don’t expect much.

Total precip accumulation over the next 36 hours from the NSSL-WRF hi-res model. It is performing excellently this morning, lending confidence to its guidance. h/t http://wrf.nssl.noaa.gov/

Highs both days look to end up in the upper 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Overnight, skies will end up being partly cloudy, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday, now, looks more interesting.

By Tuesday afternoon and evening, the GFS, GFS Ensembles and SREF (short range ensemble forecast) are all beginning to break the ridge down, allowing for movement with the semi-stationary front to our west. As it moves towards us, expect scattered storms to break out Tuesday afternoon and evening across the region.

This shows the SREF's 12 hour probability of seeing 0.25" of rainfall for Tuesday afternoon. This gives forecasters confidence on precipitation occurring across a certain region if the ensemble agrees well enough. h/t cms.met.psu.edu/sref/GEFS — This shows the SREF’s 12 hour probability of seeing 0.25″ of rainfall for Tuesday afternoon. This gives forecasters confidence on precipitation occurring across a certain region if the ensemble agrees well enough. h/t cms.met.psu.edu/sref/GEFS

This looks like it may be our best shot at seeing heavy rainfall from this system as a whole, but even with Tuesday there is some uncertainty. We will keep watching it! Highs on Tuesday will likely be in the upper 80s across the region.

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon from the NAM. h/t pivotalweather.com

Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows in the lower 70s.

Extended Outlook

Going forward, the pattern is looking cooler than average on temps, and above average on precip as toughs look to dominate the overall synoptic flow heading into the end of the month of August.

The CPC's 6-10 day temperature outlook. h/t CPC — The CPC’s 6-10 day temperature outlook. h/t CPC

The CPC's 6-10 day outlook for precipitation. h/t CPC — The CPC’s 6-10 day outlook for precipitation. h/t CPC

Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!