Bowling Green Weather Takes Gold in Stormy Forecasts

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

As predicted, humidity and moisture content in the atmosphere increased dramatically yesterday afternoon in response to southeasterly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This set us up for widespread shower/thunderstorm activity across the region. I was a little (a lot) bit off on the high yesterday, though.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville
Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Forecast Summary

Today: Scattered showers and storms. Highs around 90°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows around 75°F. 

  • Bus Stop:⛅️  77°F
  • Lunch Hour: 🌤  88°F
  • School Is Out: 🌤/⛈  90°F
  • Evening time: 🌤/⛈  87°F

Tomorrow: Scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 89°F. Overnight, look for isolated storms, with lows around 76°F.

  • Bus Stop: 🌤  77°F
  • Lunch Hour: 🌤  87°F
  • School Is Out: 🌤/⛈  89°F
  • Evening Time: 🌤/⛈  88°F

Friday: Scattered showers and storms. Highs around 89°F. Overnight, look for scattered storms, with lows around 75°F.

  • Bus Stop: ⛅️  76°F
  • Lunch Hour: ⛅️/⛈  87°F
  • School Is Out: ⛅️/⛈  89°F
  • Evening Time: ⛅️/⛈  87°F

Discussion

The next few days look fairly unique, as we interact with a tropical airmass that has set up across the region.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Initially, we are sitting underneath a historically moist airmass. The National Weather Service in Nashville is one of the sites across the US that collects upper air data. The 00z (7 pm) sounding recorded the highest Precipitable Water value for August 10th on record at that time.

A side-by-side comparison of the PWAT climatology on the left and the actual recorded sounding on the right. h/t SPC
A side-by-side comparison of the PWAT climatology on the left and the actual recorded sounding on the right. h/t SPC

This lends confidence to the level of moisture that we look to see present within the atmosphere as the week progresses onward. We look to see this level of moisture across the region today, as well.

The HRRR's 850 mb height forecast for this afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The HRRR’s 850 mb height forecast for this afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The HRRR shows the high PWATs across the region today. h/t pivotalweather.com
The HRRR shows the high PWATs across the region today. h/t pivotalweather.com

Much like yesterday, we will likely see scattered storms across the region, but not as widespread as yesterday’s storms. With the southeasterly flow advecting moisture into the region, this should be enough to force scattered storms during the afternoon hours.

The HRRR, a hi-res model, shows the potential for storms across the region today. h/t pivotalweather.com
The HRRR, a hi-res model, shows the potential for storms across the region today. h/t pivotalweather.com

Look for highs this afternoon to end up in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region.

The hi-res NAM's forecast temperatures for this evening. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi-res NAM’s forecast temperatures for this evening. h/t pivotalweather.com

Overnight, partly cloudy skies will remain, with lows falling into the mid 70s. Tomorrow looks pretty interesting as well.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Much like today, there should be enough forcing to force scattered storms, especially with the northward movement of the 850 mb trough of low pressure.

This low moves ever slightly northward tomorrow, influencing our weather by giving just enough lift to spark thunderstorms. h/t COD Weather
This low moves ever slightly northward tomorrow, influencing our weather by giving just enough lift to spark thunderstorms. h/t COD Weather

This will ensure that the airmass across the region is again anomalously high in moisture, ensuring that heavy rainfall is again a threat. Any storm that forms will likely drop a heavy amount of rainfall in a short amount of time, but the storms won’t be widespread enough to see major flash flooding issues, though. Highs will end up in the upper 80s.

The hi-res NAM's forecast temperatures for Friday evening. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi-res NAM’s forecast temperatures for Friday evening. h/t pivotalweather.com

Overnight tomorrow night, look for isolated storms to continue, with lows in the mid 70s.

Friday is when everything begins to get interesting.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

This tropical airmass will be set up across the region, and a greater amount of forcing will begin to propagate towards the region. A shortwave trough is looking to propagate towards the region by Friday afternoon, and this will likely force scattered showers and thunderstorms. I anticipate more widespread activity on Friday afternoon.

The NAM's 850 mb height forecast for Friday evening. The trough will be approaching the region, helping to enhance a storm threat. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM’s 850 mb height forecast for Friday evening. The trough will be approaching the region, helping to enhance a storm threat. h/t pivotalweather.com
PWATs of nearly 2.5" would be historically anomalous across the region. h/t pivotalweather.com
PWATs of nearly 2.5″ would be historically anomalous across the region. h/t pivotalweather.com

Heavy rainfall is the biggest threat as this shortwave moves through slowly. Highs on Friday will end up in the upper 80s.

Temperatures on Friday afternoon from the NAM. h/t pivotalweather.com
Temperatures on Friday afternoon from the NAM. h/t pivotalweather.com

Overnight, scattered storms will remain, with lows in the mid 70s.


Extended Outlook

The heavy rainfall threat will remain after Friday. A very anomalously moist atmosphere will remain across the region during the weekend, and will allow for heavy rainfall to remain a major threat across the region.

The precipitation forecast for the next 7 days. h/t WPC
The precipitation forecast for the next 7 days. h/t WPC

Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!