Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 PM CDT

Tell me if you’ve heard this before- the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM CDT for all of southern Kentucky.

The severe thunderstorm watch runs until 8 PM this evening. h/t @NWSSevereTstorm
The severe thunderstorm watch runs until 8 PM this evening. h/t @NWSSevereTstorm

The set up is eerily similar to yesterday’s system, as a decaying MCS traversed across central Missouri this morning along the leading edge of a strong vorticity maximum. The MCS was strong earlier this morning, producing wind damage reports across Missouri. While this was occurring, the clouds from this morning quickly cleared, and gave way to plentiful sunshine in a very moisture rich environment across our region. This has led to surface heating, and with dewpoints as high as they are across our region, a very unstable atmosphere has developed.

Very high CAPE parameters will allow for the storms to continue strengthening. h/t SPC
Very high CAPE parameters will allow for the storms to continue strengthening. h/t SPC

As this squall line progresses eastward, I do expect it to continue strengthening, and it may pose an even higher wind damage threat because of the saturation of the ground region wide last night. In addition to a wind damage threat, flash flooding is completely possible with any storms that form. The atmosphere is very moisture rich, and any amount of rain is bound to worsen the already bad situation across much of southern and western KY.

Higher precipitable water values will likely lead to heavy rainfall and renewed flooding issues. h/t SPC
Higher precipitable water values will likely lead to heavy rainfall and renewed flooding issues. h/t SPC

To close this off, we are also under a Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM this evening. Like I mentioned before, any amount of rainfall is likely to worsen the issues. In addition to this, there is the possibility that we see a region of heavy rainfall form again this evening and train over similar areas as last evening. Some of the higher resolution models have been point to that today, and that is a threat I wanted to make you all aware of.


Main Threats

  • 60+ mph winds
  • Tree and limb damage
  • Flash Flooding
  • Lightning

Be sure to keep up with @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for the latest on the weather this afternoon.