Stormy Bowling Green Weather to Continue

Real time Bowling Green Weather radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Well, that was interesting. What a 4th of July! The atmosphere was really giving all of us a fireworks show before the real one! It was honestly crazy. I wrote about the basics of it in our latest WxRecap post last night. In general, yesterday was active, but it didn’t get too hot because of that. Most of us only hit the mid and upper 80s.

Yesterday's highs. h/t KY Mesonet
Yesterday’s highs. h/t KY Mesonet

This allowed temps to really be pleasant for late evening fireworks shows!


Forecast Summary

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, with isolated storms early in the days. Highs around 86°F. Overnight, skies should become partly cloudy, with lows falling to around 71°F.

  • Wake up: 🌥  75°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌥/⛅️  82°F
  • Evening time: ⛅️  79°F

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, with scattered storms in the evening. Highs around 93°F. Overnight, look for scattered storms chances to remain. Lows around 75°F.

  • Wake up: 🌤 72°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌤  91°F
  • Evening time:  🌤/⛈  87°F

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with isolated storms to our north. Highs around 91°F. Overnight, look for skies to stay partly cloudy, with lows falling to around 75°F.

  • Wake up: 🌤  75°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌤/🌩  89°F
  • Evening time: 🌤  85°F

Discussion

Ahh, another interesting forecast period? I’ll take it!

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

If the past few days haven’t been active enough for you, then we have more coming for you. Today looks sort of not great. Clouds are abundant across the region this morning, and with the 500 mb shortwave axis remaining to our west according to early morning analysis, we will have an isolated storm threat through the morning.

The RAP analysis of 500 mb analysis this morning. The shortwave is still just to our west. h/t SPC
The RAP analysis of 500 mb analysis this morning. The shortwave is still just to our west. h/t SPC

As we head into this afternoon, though, we should see some gradual clearing. The shortwave axis will shift to our east, shifting the storm risk eastward as well. While it won’t become fully sunny, I do expect to see partly cloudy conditions develop by early to mid afternoon. This will allow temps to rise into the mid 80s across the region.

The hi-res NAM's forecast for temps this afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi-res NAM’s forecast for temps this afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com

Overnight, look for things to stay partly cloudy generally, with lows only falling into the lower 70s. As a disclaimer for the week: I expect lows to only end up in the 70s this week as we look to have a very moist atmosphere across the region over the next few days, and this will keep temps elevated during the overnight hours. The more you know!

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Tomorrow looks interesting, at least to me. We look to have an amplified shortwave move east-southeasterly towards us during the day, creating a favorable atmosphere for lift across the region.

The NAM's forecast for 500 mb heights tomorrow afternoon. THe shortwave is annotated with the dashed line, and its movement with the arrow. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM’s forecast for 500 mb heights tomorrow afternoon. THe shortwave is annotated with the dashed line, and its movement with the arrow. h/t pivotalweather.com

The models have trended a bit northward with the track of the shortwave in the latest suite of models, but the idea is that a strong shortwave will likely move from northern Missouri towards the region Wednesday afternoon/evening. This will reach a region that is very warm and moist, yielding high mixed layer CAPE values across the region.

The hi-res NAM's forecast for dewpoints tomorrow evening. Dewpoints in the mid 70s are widespread across the region. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi-res NAM’s forecast for dewpoints tomorrow evening. Dewpoints in the mid 70s are widespread across the region. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi-res NAM's forecast for mixed-layer CAPE values. Mixed-layer CAPE is a good approximation of instability across our portion of the world. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi-res NAM’s forecast for mixed-layer CAPE values. Mixed-layer CAPE is a good approximation of instability across our portion of the world. h/t pivotalweather.com

Additionally, atmospheric flow looks to increase across the region during the evening hours, yielding wind shear values of 30-35 knots across our region and points to the north. This is enough to produce some thunderstorm clusters capable of damaging winds. The SPC has outlined our region in a marginal risk for tomorrow.

The SPC convective outlook for tomorrow. h/t SPC
The SPC convective outlook for tomorrow. h/t SPC

Highs during the day will likely rise into the low and mid 90s with southwesterly flow giving our temps a notch up. Overnight, look for an isolated storm threat to continue, with lows falling into the mid 70s.

The NAM model's forecast for temps tomorrow afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM model’s forecast for temps tomorrow afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com

Thursday looks a little bland.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

There has been some guidance hinting at some showers on Thursday along boundaries laid from possible thunderstorms Wednesday night, but that is something we will have to wait and see on. However, if Wednesday night does lay out boundaries across the region, expect this forecast to tweak a bit.

The NAM's model forecast for temps Thursday afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM’s model forecast for temps Thursday afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com

Highs on Thursday should get up into the upper 80s and lower 90s, with partly cloudy skies and the storm threat. I think overall, the threat for storms is a bit higher to our north, but we will see. Overnight, look for skies to remain partly cloudy, with lows in the mid 70s.


Extended Outlook

I will focus on Friday a bit here, because there is another severe weather threat that we need to address that day.

The day 4 outlook for our region from the SPC. This is the equivalent of a slight risk. h/t SPC
The day 4 outlook for our region from the SPC. This is the equivalent of a slight risk. h/t SPC

A deeper and stronger trough will be moving across the Midwest on Friday, forcing a surface low across the upper Ohio Valley. This will drag a cold front across the region, and with southwesterly flow likely increasing temps into the mid 90s, this cold front will encounter a fairly unstable environment across the region on Friday.

The GFS' forecast for surface based CAPE on Friday afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The GFS’ forecast for surface based CAPE on Friday afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com

Overall, the best wind shear will be to our north and east, but any storm that goes up on Friday will be capable of heavy rain, strong winds and lightning.


Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest weather information. Have a great day folks!