Stormy Bowling Green Weather Incoming

Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:


Yesterday’s Weather

Father’s Day Bowling Green weather was very nice yesterday. Mostly sunny skies accompanied highs around 90 degrees. No rainfall occurred in Bowling Green, despite very isolated showers developing during the evening hours. The Bowling Green Bubble prevailed! Overall a great forecast was put together by Pierce yesterday. Solid work.

BWG Climate Report - National Weather Service
BWG Climate Report – National Weather Service

Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly sunny throughout the day. Very small, isolated showers possible during the evening hours. Winds will be out of the south and southwest around 5 – 10 mph. Highs will be around 90°F. Tonight will bring mostly cloudy skies with lows around 71°F. Showers possible late overnight.

  • Wake Up: ⛅️ 70°F
  • Lunch Time:  ⛅️ 86°F
  • Evening: 🌦/⛅️ 88°F

Tuesday: AM showers will give way to partly cloudy skies during midday. Isolated showers and storms will likely reform in the afternoon. Some severe storms not out of the question. Winds will be out of the west-southwest around 5 – 10 mph. Highs will be around 88°F. Tuesday night will bring isolated showers with lows around 73°F.

  • Wake Up: 🌦 72°F
  • Lunch Time: ⛅️ 87°F
  • Evening: 🌩 ⛅️ 80°F

Wednesday: AM showers may give way to partly cloudy skies during midday and into the afternoon. Hot & Windy. Winds will be out of the southwest around 5 – 10 mph with gusts as high as 20 mph possible. Highs will be around 93°F. Overnight, isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Some may be severe. Lows will be around 76°F.

  • Wake Up: 🌦 73°F
  • Lunch Time: ⛅️ 88°F
  • Evening: ⛅️ 86°F

Discussion

This forecast will be leading up to a climax on Wednesday, which features a fairy complicated forecast for strong to severe thunderstorms somewhere in the Ohio Valley. So, let’s jump right in!

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Currently, a big ol’ ridge has set up across much of the central United States. A trough is located at the top of this ridge in south-central Canada. This ridge will be responsible for most of the weather this week across the continental United States.

Current 500mb Flow Across United States - SPC
Current 500mb Flow Across United States – SPC

Throughout the day today, the ridge will move very little. However, the trough will translate eastward along the northern extent of the ridge. This will have little to no impact on our sensible weather though as summertime “pop-up” showers are expected this evening. These will remain very, very isolated.

NAM Model Forecast 500mb Wind Speed and Height - Valid 7 PM This Evening - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast 500mb Wind Speed and Height – Valid 7 PM This Evening – College of DuPage

Basically, it may rain at your house, but not your neighbor’s house….or the opposite?

Literally my response if you ask
Literally my response if you ask “Will it rain at my house this evening?” h/t giphy.com

In other news, dew point temperatures will be on the climb today, making it feel a lil’ muggy out there during the afternoon and evening. Yuck in my opinion, but that’s just part of Summer.

NAM Model Forecast Dew Point Temperatures - Valid 4 PM This Afternoon - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast Dew Point Temperatures – Valid 4 PM This Afternoon – College of DuPage

On Tuesday morning, a jet streak will be noted to the north of the region(a). This will push a boundary south(b), along the southern axis of the jet streak. This will be the focus of Tuesday morning showers across the region(c).

NAM Model Forecast 500mb Wind Speed ad Height - Valid 7 AM Tuesday - College of DuPage
(a) NAM Model Forecast 500mb Wind Speed ad Height – Valid 7 AM Tuesday – College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast Surface Theta-e Temperatures - Valid 7 AM Tuesday - College of DuPage
(b) NAM Model Forecast Surface Theta-e Temperatures – Valid 7 AM Tuesday – College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast 3 Hour Precipitation Totals - Valid 7 AM Tuesday - College of DuPage
(c) NAM Model Forecast 3 Hour Precipitation Totals – Valid 7 AM Tuesday – College of DuPage

By the evening hours, divergence aloft is noted at the jet stream level. This will provide enough lift, in an unstable environment, to produce showers and thunderstorms across the region.

NAM Model Forecast 500mb Wind Speed and Heights - Valid 7 PM Tuesday - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast 500mb Wind Speed and Heights – Valid 7 PM Tuesday – College of DuPage

 

NAM Model Forecast 3 Hour Precipitation Totals - Valid 7 PM Tuesday - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast 3 Hour Precipitation Totals – Valid 7 PM Tuesday – College of DuPage

As a result of thunderstorms forming in an unstable environment, strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible on Tuesday evening. The main threats will be torrential rainfall, vivid lightning, large hail, and strong wind. At this time the Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a “Marginal” risk of severe weather. We’ll keep an eye on it for you.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook - Valid Tuesday - NOAA SPC
Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook – Valid Tuesday – NOAA SPC
Kylo Ren
Kylo Ren “Matt” thinks you’re in good hands! h/t giphy.com

Wednesday, a shortwave will move in the Iowa, Illinois, northern Missouri vicinity. This will trigger explosive thunderstorms in a very unstable environment across the Ohio Valley.

NAM Model Forecast 700mb Wind Speed ad Height - Valid 10 AM Wednesday - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast 700mb Wind Speed ad Height – Valid 10 AM Wednesday – College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast Mixed Layer CAPE - Valid 4 PM Wednesday - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast Mixed Layer CAPE – Valid 4 PM Wednesday – College of DuPage

The exact placement of the shortwave and subsequent thunderstorms are in question, so continue to monitor forecasts. However, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a “Marginal” risk of severe weather once again.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook - Valid Wednesday - NOAA SPC
Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook – Valid Wednesday – NOAA SPC

That should wrap up this post. It feels good to be forecasting weather again after a couple weeks of vacation. I hope you have a superb week! Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest Bowling Green weather information!