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Real-time Bowling Green Weather Radar:
Yesterday’s Weather
Yesterday’s weather was, again, very warm out. But also: it was ridiculously humid.
This led to a miserable day outside, which made being out in it miserable as well. I will say, I am very happy about that for one reason: my forecast was spot on! We had an exact high of 94°F, and isolated storms.
Forecast Summary
Today: Partly cloudy, with scattered storms possible. Highs around 91°F. Overnight, partly cloudy skies will remain, with lows around 72°F.
- Wake up: ☀️ 72°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤⛈ 87°F
- Evening time:⛈☀️ 84°F
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy, with scattered storms. Some could be strong to severe. Highs around 90°F. Overnight, partly cloudy skies should remain, with scattered storms remaining possible. Lows around 74°F.
- Wake up: 🌤 72°F
- Lunch hour: ⛅️⛈ 87°F
- Evening time: ⛈⛅️ 85°F
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with isolated storms. Some could be severe. Highs around 94°F. Overnight, skies will clear, with lows falling to around 68°F
- Wake up: ☀️ 75°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤⛈ 90°F
- Evening time:⛈☀️ 86°F
Discussion
Did you see the title!? We have entered into a forecast period in which I think the title needs to focus on something other than heat!!
The storms are definitely the bigger issue the next few days, as it looks like we may see several rounds, and some of those rounds could be severe. It has definitely been a while since we have had weather this potentially interesting. So, starting with today, the boundary that sparked off the storms yesterday is still hanging around the region, and will likely be a trigger for more storms today.
With highs ending up in the lower 90s, and dewpoints residing in the upper 60s, plenty of instability is forecast to develop across the region, and this will give storms plenty to rise into. The main threats today are heavy rainfall and lightning.
Overnight, partly cloudy skies should remain, with lows in the lower 70s.
Now things get really interesting tomorrow. A shortwave trough is currently ejecting north-northeastward, and is forecast to close off by tomorrow morning over southern Canada.
The trough axis of this shortwave will be extending down the Great plains, and into our region. At the surface, this shortwave will force a deepening surface low. This will likely be the trigger for some scattered severe thunderstorms. CAPE will be high across the region, allowing for strong storms to develop.
Additionally, wind shear looks to increase by the evening time, creating a more favorable environment across the region. I would watch for scattered storms to form along the cold front in the Great Lakes region to congeal into an MCS and trek southeastward. We shall see! Overnight Wednesday, storms are possible with partly cloudy skies. Lows in the mid 70s.
I actually am more impressed with Thursday’s severe weather threat than I am with tomorrow’s. The shortwave and associated surface low look to move southeastward, and will be closer in proximity to our region, and forcing from the mid levels will be better as well.
During the day, highs will end up rising into the mid 90s, with dewpoints likely residing in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will likely create an extremely unstable environment across the region as the cold front approaches.
Additionally, wind shear will increase across the region, creating a very favorable environment for thunderstorms to form in.
The main threats will end up being damaging winds and hail, along with heavy rainfall and lightning. Overnight, skies should clear, with lows falling to the upper 60s.
Extended Outlook
I am a little less confident on the long range forecast today than I was yesterday, or the few times before that.
The model guidance isn’t too consistent on overall large-scale flow across the region. I am still sticking to my guns in that a ridge will develop across the western US, leading to northwesterly flow in association with a persistent trough. Lets get through the next few days before jumping too much into the long range.
Well, that is all I have! Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for the latest on the severe weather threats! Have a good one!