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Real-time BG Radar:
Today: Partly sunny, with scattered storms throughout the day. High of 86ºF. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a continued threat of storms. Low of 73ºF.
I am, admittedly, skeptical of even my own forecast here. Though this is short-term forecasting, the models are leading me different directions. All three hi-res models are in different directions on convective strength and areal coverage this morning.
This leads to my skepticism. However, I am certain that there will be a pretty decent coverage of clouds and storms throughout the day. A cold front is making its way across the region, dragging eastward with a low pressure centered in Canada.
This will keep the storm threat throughout the day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid and upper 80s. It appears that we’ll see a round of showers and storm track through this morning, eventually letting up by midday.
Depending on how much sunshine we see will determine how much our atmosphere recovers. If we get a decent amount of sunshine, redevelopment of strong storms will be more susceptible this afternoon. Our main threat will be torrential rain and flooding.
As we head into the overnight hours, the storm threat will remain across the region, and lows will only drop into the lower 70s. The SPC has us included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms today, with a 5% probability of at least 58mph winds and/or 1″ diameter hail occurring within 25 miles of you:
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with scattered storms. High of 85ºF. Wed. night: Continued storm threat, with partly cloudy skies. Lows around 70ºF.
For being a summer forecast, this is actually quite the tough forecast.
A lot of Wednesday’s forecast depends on how far south and east that cold front makes it. Many of the models drop this front just to our north, and stall it out. This would put us just south of a thunderstorm initiation point, and it doesn’t take much of a trigger to light em up this time of year.
There should also be a relatively tight temperature gradient associated with this front. To its north, there will be cooler and drier conditions. To the south, hot, humid and stormy. Right now, it looks like that we are going to experience the latter of the two, but weak cold fronts act weird sometimes.
Anyways, I am expecting scattered storms throughout the day, with highs ending up in the mid and upper 80s (again). Overnight, the threat continues, with lows dropping into the lower 70s.
Thursday: Breezy and warm, with isolated storms. High of 90ºF. Thur. night: Same ‘ole, same ‘ole. Partly cloudy, chance of storms. Low of 71ºF.
Thursday gets a lot easier to forecast than Wednesday, which makes me happy!
The stationary front that I discussed earlier in the post will begin to life northward in association with a new low pressure system. There will likely be storms with this low, but not necessarily near us. Highs will end up in the lower 90s, with a breezy southwesterly wind.
Thursday night looks to be just as boring as any other summer night forecast is. Partly cloudy, isolated storms. Nothing unusual to see here. Look for lows to drop into the lower 70s (again).
Well, thats all I have for today. Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather info across the region.