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Weather Headlines:
*Areal Flood Watch from 6 PM Tuesday until 12 PM Wednesday for all of south central Kentucky*
An Areal Flood Watch is issued for flooding that develops gradually, usually from prolonged and persistent moderate to heavy rainfall. This results in a gradual ponding or buildup of water in low-lying, flood prone areas, as well as small creeks and streams.
*Winter Storm WARNING from 12 pm Wednesday until 12 pm Thursday for all of south central Kentucky*
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations. The criteria for this warning to be issued is confidence in the forecast for potential snow/ice accumulations of 4+”.
This Afternoon – Scat’d showers – High 63˚ / Tonight – Heavy Rain & Storms – Low 41˚
On and off showers will continue through the afternoon, as temperatures top out in the low 60s. Even though it may be a little damp out there, I recommend soaking up all that warmth while you can. A low pressure system will swing to our northeast, causing its associated cold front to close in from our northwest. The surface model below is valid for 6pm tonight, and showcases the approaching cold front:
This will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area, which will dump ample amounts of rainfall through Wednesday morning. Total rain amounts are expected to range between 1-3″. This is supported by the latest QPF model, valid for rainfall through 6am Wednesday, which calls for over 2″ of the wet stuff:
Considering this could lead to minor flooding problems, the NWS has issued an Areal Flood Watch for the entire viewing area from 6pm this evening through 12pm Wednesday.
If water rises over roads in flood prone areas, please do not attempt to cross them. Take these folks’ advice…
“Turn Around, Don’t Drown.”
Wed 3/4 – Rain to Sleet & Snow – High 42˚ / Wed Night – Snow & Sleet Likely – Low 16˚
A variety of weather is on tap for our Wednesday. Widespread showers will be ongoing as we wake up tomorrow morning. A cold front will slide to our southeast during the predawn hours, causing temperatures to tumble as the day progresses.
As this occurs, a transition to freezing rain, then sleet & snow is expected between mid afternoon and early evening, with a full transition to all snow as we get later into Wednesday night. What exactly happens in the atmosphere to create these different types of precipitation? The following graphic should help:
Temperatures are expected to slide below freezing sometime between mid afternoon and early evening (3pm – 8pm), meaning travel conditions will deteriorate quickly once the changeover in precipitation happens. Any brine of the roads will be of little to no help, considering the heavy rain will wash the majority of it away before the transition to frozen precipitation occurs.
Snow is expected to finally taper off throughout the early morning hours of our Thursday. The heaviest of the frozen price should fall between 9pm – 3am Wednesday evening – Thursday morning. This is supported by the GFS model below, valid for 12am Thursday:
Accumulation Talk: I cannot stress enough how difficult this system is to forecast. Unlike the last major system, we’re going to be dealing with a warm nose aloft (see ‘Warm Air’ graphic above previous paragraph displaying different precipitation types and why they occur), creating the potential for plentiful amounts of freezing rain & sleet before the changeover to all snow. If this happens, accumulations will not be as high.
With that being said, our call for Warren & surrounding counties is anywhere from 3-7+” of snow and ice accumulation. Localized areas could see even more.
…you can run, but you can’t hide.
Again, I stress that this forecast is subject to change, given any slight shift in the track of this system. Remember, the more freezing rain & sleet we see, the lower accumulations will be. We’ll continue to update frequently as the latest data filters in. Keep in mind we’ll be under a Winter Storm WARNING from 12 pm Wednesday through 12pm Thursday.
Don’t wait around. Prepare now, ahead of time, before this system starts to impact the area. The main impacts with this system will be horrible travel conditions, along with possible power outages, considering the potential for freezing rain, stout winds and ice accretion.
Thu 3/5 – AM Snow Showers; Gradual Clearing – High 26˚ / Thu Night – Clear – Low 2˚
Arctic high pressure will build over the area Thursday, resulting in rays of sunshine slowly but surely reclaiming the sky. This will follow scattered snow showers that may hang around through mid morning. Don’t let the rays of sun deceive you, as temperatures will be limited to the mid 20s, as northwesterly winds around 10mph punish the area.
The combination of clear skies and light northerly winds throughout our Thursday night will send lows tumbling to near 0˚.
Oh. Joy.
Rays of sunshine are slated to stick around both Friday and Saturday, with a warming trend seeing high temps in the mid 30s Friday, and lower 40s Saturday.
That will be all for the afternoon update. As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx for the latest real-time weather info. Above all things, make sure you check back here early tomorrow morning for the latest details regarding the new data. We’ll really start to nail this down as we get closer to time. Have a great rest of your day, and stay safe. Thanks for reading!