Winter Storm Possible Midweek

Yeah, yeah, yeah. You did read that correctly. “But..but..I thought we were supposed to see temps in the mid 60s on Tuesday?”

Well, that’s probably going to happen. However, that is associated with the same system that I’m talking about.

While Monday looks pretty cruddy weather wise, come Tuesday, things look to get a whole lot more interesting, thanks to an area of low pressure moving to our north. Temps will rise rapidly throughout the day, and will likely end up topping out between 65 – 70˚. Along with the unseasonably warm temperatures will also come the chance at widespread showers and thunderstorms.

That will all change early Wednesday morning, as a cold front surges southeast across the region.  The WPC surface model below illustrates the cold front slicing along the Ohio River:

As the low moves into Canada, its associated cold front will eventually stall out in the Ohio valley. There will be a sharp temperature gradient along this boundary.  To give you an idea, see the GFS temp model below, valid for 12am Wednesday:

According to this, temperatures will be in the mid 60s across middle Tennessee, while upper 30s are expected just to our northwest. Behind this front is another shot of Arctic air that will move into the region. The position of the front and arctic air is critical in the development of a possible mid-week winter storm.

We’re still too far out to make any accurate accumulation assumptions, but it is interesting to note that the WPC currently places south central Kentucky in a 50% – 60% probability of seeing >2″ of what we like to refer to as the “white gold.” Again…take this with a big grain of salt.

There is substantial uncertainty regarding the evolution, track and moisture associated with this wave of low pressure, but confidence is increasing in the idea of some wintry precipitation taking place, maybe significant, in the Wednesday – Thursday timeframe.

Best Buy might be busy tomorrow…

This is a very tricky setup, and any slight change in the track of the system will result in changes to the forecast. Please take note and keep your eyes on the forecast as we head towards mid week.

Be sure to keep up with @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter as we approach the event.