Friday's Bowling Green Weather Update

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

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This Afternoon – Increasing Clouds; Cool – High 47º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Chilly — Low 38º

3pm 47º – 6pm 42º – 9pm 40º – 12am 40º – 3am 39º – 6am 38º

Plenty of sunshine has taken over southern Kentucky as surface high pressure has controlled our region’s weather the past 48 hours. In return, highs have climbed into the mid, even upper 40’s for the area giving us a nice end to the work week.

As we head into the evening and overnight hours, the aforementioned surface high pressure will begin to weaken and work towards the mid-Atlantic region. This will allow cloud cover to spread northeastward from the southwest as mostly cloudy conditions prevail tonight. Otherwise, look for rather calm conditions with overnight lows in the upper 30’s.

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid for Fri 6pm – NOAA

Sat – Mostly Cloudy; Warm & Breezy – High 63º / Sat Night – Mostly Cloudy; Sct’d Showers (Late) – Low 47º

The first part of our weekend will be somewhat of a transition day for the wet weather ahead. A strong upper level disturbance will strengthen across the Deep South before riding northeastward along the mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong southerly winds around 10-15 mph will ramp up throughout the day with gust up to 25 mph at times. Regardless, this will prime our atmosphere as warmth and moisture will ride northward into southern Kentucky.

Highs will climb into the upper lower 60’s by Saturday afternoon as mostly cloudy skies eventually take over. A few scattered showers will be possible Saturday night before a bulk of the precipitation is set to arrive by Sunday. Otherwise, lows will be milder as temperatures only drop into the middle 40’s.

Sun – Mostly Cloudy; Rain likely – High 64º / Sun Night – Mostly Cloudy; Rain Likely – Low 51º

The latter part of our weekend will feature wet and windy conditions. A low pressure system and its associated warm front will lift northward into the region allowing temperatures to climb into the low-mid 60’s for highs. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail early as strong southerly winds crank up around 10-20 mph (with gust up to 35 mph at times).

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid for Sun 6am – NOAA

The strong southerly wind component will only help temperatures warm up while bringing plenty of moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitable water values rise into the 1.4-1.5” range indicating moist conditions that is supportive for heavy rainfall.

Precipitable Water Map – Valid for Sun Noon – College of DuPage.

There is good model agreement on the arrival for this soaking rainfall for Sunday. Both the GFS and NAM show precipitation arriving on Bowling Green’s doorstep late morning/early afternoon and could provide an impact for any afternoon plans you might have. While severe weather will not be a threat, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be our primary concerns through the afternoon period. Here’s a good visual breakdown from the NAM model.

NAM 12z Simulated Reflectivity – Valid from Sun Noon-Mon 6am – College of DuPage.

Otherwise, look for rain (heavy at times) to continue through Sunday afternoon and evening before finally coming to an end by Monday. Lingering showers will stick around through the early part of the week before the system finally clears the state by Monday evening. Precipitation forecast hint towards a moderate rain event with totals ranging from 0.75” – 1.25”. Lows Sunday night will remain mild as temperatures drop into the lower 50’s.

WPC Precipitation Forecast – Valid thru Monday 6am – NOAA

That does it for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. Have a great evening!