Friday's Cold Bowling Green Weather Update

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

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This Afternoon – Decreasing Clouds; Cold – High 36º / Tonight – Mostly Clear; Cold — Low 21º

3pm 36º – 6pm 29º – 9pm 27º – 12am 26º – 3am 24º – 6am 21º

Strong surface high pressure finally edge closer to the region through today as cold conditions have won out. Highs have struggled to reach the mid 30’s with wind chills in the upper 20’s, lower 30’s. Despite the unseasonably cold air, decreasing clouds have allowed some sunshine to make an appearance this afternoon.

Looking ahead for tonight, not a lot happens weather-wise. High pressure moves overhead as skies clear out and winds calm. In return, look for temperatures to drop into the lower 20’s with a few upper teens possible in the valley/sheltered areas.

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid for Fri 6pm – NOAA

Sat – Increasing Clouds; Cold – High 40º / Sat Night – Cloudy; Rain/Snow Showers – Low 32º

As we head into the weekend, our forecast gets a bit more interesting. There is good model agreement on two systems sliding through the region while bringing a snowfall chance with each. Now, system number 1 is expected to arrive Saturday night and into early Sunday. However, this disturbance looks to have a bigger impact on portions of central and northern Kentucky.

Increasing cloud cover will only hurt our temperature climb Saturday as mostly cloudy conditions take over by the afternoon hours. Highs will struggle to reach the 40º mark with overnight lows only falling to the freezing mark. With this impulse of energy taking a further northward track, look for most activity to reside across northern parts of state.

Nam — NAM 12z Avg. Cloud Cover – Valid Sat Noon – College of DuPage.

With that said, precipitation will start out as a few rain showers before having the chance to changeover to some snowflakes. This first system will be rather weak with light precip amounts. Look for little to no accumulation across SOKY with the better chances for a rooftop duster to our north.

Sun – Mostly Cloudy; Cold – High 42º / Sun Night – Mostly Cloudy; Rain/Snow Likely – Low 31º

By Sunday, the cloud cover looks to remain in place for Bowling Green weather. Highs will climb into the lower 40’s as winds shift from our southwest. While most of the day remains calm, the evening and overnight period will grab all the attention.

A low pressure system will develop across the Deep South before riding northeastward along the Appalachian Mountains. This will push a slug of warmer air and moisture northward into the region as precipitation will likely start out as rainfall by the evening hours. However, cold air will quickly filter in from our NW through Sunday night allowing temperatures to crash (near or below freezing). In return, rainfall would quickly transition to snowfall late Sunday and into early Monday morning.

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid for Mon 6am – NOAA

Let’s dive in for a closer look. The counter-clockwise rotation of the surface low will pull warm, moist air to the northwest side of the low, where much cooler temperatures will reside over Kentucky.

This will create an opportunity for us to see wrap-around snow. The following model, valid for 6am Monday, displays warmer air (brighter colors to the S/SE side of the low) being pulled over top of the much colder air (NW side of the low) that is expected to be residing over Kentucky closer the surface. Should that moist air fall through this cold layer…we’ll see the white stuff fly.

GFS Surface Temperature & Wind Model Valid 6am Monday

The main questions we want to answer over the next couple of days will be…where will this low pressure track (slightly to the north = less snow, more rain or slightly to the south = more snow/less rain)? Where exactly will the rain/snow line fall? How much snowfall will we see? These are all the unknowns that are still to be determined as we monitor new model data.

As for now, if we do receive anything, it doesn’t look to be much. We could see anything from nothing up to 2″ at best.

As always, there is a lot of change that can happen between now and Sunday night. While this system doesn’t pose a major winter threat, it’s still something worth keeping up with. Of course we’ll be updating frequently as this system evolves over the next 48-72 hours.

Until then, enjoy the sunshine and try to stay warm out there! Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter.