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Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar: 
This Afternoon – Mostly Cloudy, Iso’d Strong-Severe Storms – High 80º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Strong-Severe Storms Likely – Low 66º
3pm 80º – 6pm 78º – 9pm 73º – 12am 71º – 3am 69º – 6am 66º
A very active weather period is ahead for Bowling Green as a potent cold front works across the region over the next 24-36 hours. Breezy & warm conditions will prevail this afternoon as strong southerly winds increase up to 10-20 mph. This strong southerly wind component will usher in unseasonably warm temperatures along with ample amounts of moisture.
The surface low and its associated warm front will track northeastward throughout this afternoon as isolated strong-severe storms remain possible ahead of the main squall line. Despite the threats with the main line of storms to our west (more on that in a bit), the isolated development should be monitored closely through this evening.
Adequate wind shear values (~ 30-40 kts.), moderate instability (~1,000 J/kg), strong helicity values (2-300 m^2/s^2) and signs of veering all show the threat for an isolated tornado or two. Our wind profile shows signs of veering and indicates that low-level rotation with these cells are possible.
The Storm Prediction Center’s latest outlook keeps portions of southern and far western Kentucky under a slight (think enhanced) risk for severe weather through tonight. The higher moderate risk remains to our south and west.
The more significant weather appears to be later this evening and tonight for Bowling Green as a large squall line with embedded bowing segments and mesovorticies work eastward. These storms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall, damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few brief spin up tornadoes. Here’s the latest SPC Day 1 Wind outlook for southern Kentucky.
SPC gives Bowling Green a 15% chance for seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a point.
SPC gives Bowling Green a 2% chance for seeing a Tornado within 25 miles of a point.
SPC gives Bowling Green less than 5% chance for seeing large hail within 25 miles of a point.
The main squall line has been moving much faster than the modeled output; this includes the 12Z runs for both the GFS & NAM. The upper level low is expected to cut off and slow this line down. In return, the potential for flooding arises as training storms could induce flash flooding for several folks. This has prompted a Flash Flood Watch starting tonight at 10pm – Tuesday 7pm CDT.
We’ll be updating frequently on the blog and social media through tonight as this system works across the region. Be sure to stay weather aware over the next 24 hours.
Tue – Mostly Cloudy; Strong-Severe Storms Likely – High 70º / Tue Night – Mostly Cloudy; Sct’d Showers – Low 54º
The aforementioned squall line will work across the Commonwealth through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning. As mentioned before, the line of storms will likely slow down during this period as the upper level low cuts off. In return, scattered showers and storms will likely persist into the early morning hours with more development possible late Tuesday morning.
Main threats through our Tuesday will likely be heavy rainfall, gusty winds, lightning, and flooding. Otherwise, look for another soggy day as widespread rainfall takes over the Commonwealth. Highs Tuesday will be a tad cooler as temperatures reach the lower 70’s with lows cooling off into the mid 50’s.
Wed – Mostly Cloudy; Sct’d Showers – High 60º / Wed Night – Mostly Cloudy; Sct’d Showers – Low 51º
The pesky upper level low will slowly meander across the Ohio Valley Region by mid-week before finally lifting northeastward by Thursday. In return, we’ll hold onto the chances for scattered showers across Bowling Green as much cooler air settles in. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the 60 degree mark while dreary conditions win out.
Look for no real change by Wednesday night as the cool and damp weather continues. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 50’s as scattered showers remain possible. Regardless, things are shaping up to be quite wet across southern Kentucky as we’ll finally look to dry out some by late week.
That does it for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. Stay weather aware!