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Real-time Radar:
Today 7/1 – Mostly Sunny, Hot, Sct’d PM T’storms (A few severe) – High 94º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy, Sct’d Thunderstorms (A few severe) – Low 73º
Good morning, we will see quite the variety of weather today with oppressive heat and severe weather on tap. Let’s start with the heat, to word it simply today will be a scorcher. Temperatures will attempt to reach the mid 90s with high dew points making it feel 100-105˚ this afternoon. Take it easy if you have to be outside today and remember to drink lots of water.
This warm, moist air mass that’s in place is perfect for thunderstorm development. An approaching cold front should help storms fire to our west this afternoon. These storms will congeal into clusters of thunderstorms and should drift eastward into our area later today.
As of right now, it looks like the storms will impact our area sometime between 6-10 pm. This is subject to change once the storms actually initiate to our west, so we’ll have to keep our eye on the radar. Once storms move into our area damaging winds, hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning look to be the main threats. A brief, isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well.
This morning’s convective outlook from the SPC agrees with this thinking as most of Kentucky remains in a slight (enhanced) risk for severe weather today.
The SPC has given us a 15% chance of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a given point.
They have also given us a 15% chance of seeing large hail (>1″) within 25 miles of a given point.
The tornado threat is low, but we are in a 2% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.
Storms will continue tonight and even though the severe threat will diminish some after midnight, we can’t rule out a few severe storms overnight as better wind shear moves into the area along the front. By tomorrow morning, it looks like we will have seen 0.25-0.5″ of rain from tonight’s storms. With very high precipitable water values, locally higher amounts will occur in areas that see thunderstorms.
Wednesday 7/2 – Mostly Sunny; Iso’d T’storms – High 87° / Wednesday Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 62°
Wednesday will be best described as a transition day for us. The cold front will struggle to move very fast and as a result we will be dealing with a few storms during the first part of the day.
The second half of the day will be a change of pace as winds from the west will pick up and move in some much drier air into the area. Highs will only reach into the upper 80s with much lower dew points making it feel a lot more comfortable.
Storm chances will dissipate by Wednesday evening and we will clear out Wednesday night with lows dipping into the lower 60s.
Thursday 7/3 – Mostly Sunny, Pleasant – High 81° / Thursday Night – Mostly Clear – Low 61°
Come Thursday, you might be mixed up on what month it is because Thursday will feel more like a May or September day than July. High pressure will slide in behind this cold front and keep things cool and beautiful. Highs will struggle to break 80 degrees.
Be sure to check back with us for the afternoon update, as the forecast can definitely change. For real-time weather updates follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter. Enjoy your Tuesday and stay cool today.