Severe Weather Update

Real-Time Regional Radar:

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Our focus continues to be on breaking down our weather pattern this afternoon & tonight.  Much of this will be determined by how much sunshine we see through the afternoon.  More sunshine = greater instability.  This equates to higher storm potential.  The clouds are our friends this afternoon…lets hope they hang around.

As of noon, clouds were still intact, however, starting to dissipate.  A frontal boundary will sag southward as the day progresses, potentially allowing rapid birth and intensification of convection.  Here is a visual to help you understand what’s going on:

Strong to severe storms will be possible as we get into mid to late afternoon through this evening.  What should start out as discrete cells or cell clusters near the Ohio River could congeal into a strengthening squall line structure as it plows southeast across the area.

The following HRRR simulated radar loops every hour from 2pm – 7pm.  It should give you a better idea of how this event may unfold.

Main threats with this weather maker, should it unfold, will be damaging straight line winds and large hail.  Torrential rainfall (1-3+”) and frequent lightning should also be expected.  With storm mode being uncertain, there is also a threat for tornadoes with this particular setup.  Time frame for greatest concern will be ~4pm – 10pm.

The latest SPC outlook says you have a 5% probability of seeing a tornado occur within 25 miles of you this afternoon – evening:

A 30% probability of seeing severe winds (≥ 58mph) within 25 miles of you:

A 30% probability of seeing severe hail (size ≥1″ in diameter) within 25 miles of you:

Please have MULTIPLE ways of staying informed on this evolving weather situation.  The SPC should be issuing a severe weather watch for us sometime in the near future.  Heed any warnings that may follow.  We’ll be providing more frequent updates via twitter @WxOrNotBG & @WarrenCountyWx.  Be safe!