Strong-Severe Storms Wednesday

Real Time Regional Radars:

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This Afternoon – Partly Cloudy; Stray Shower/Storm – High 85º / Tonight – Partly Cloudy; Mild – Low 69º

3pm 84º – 6pm 82º – 9pm 75º – 12am 73º – 3am 71º – 6am 69º

Once again, muggy and warm conditions have won out for our Tuesday as temperatures reached into the 80’s under partly cloudy skies. While most activity should remain limited this afternoon, we’ll keep the chance for an isolated shower or storm in the forecast. Any activity will remain hit and miss at best as any storm development will be non-severe.

For any pop-up shower or storm that occurs this afternoon or evening, activity will diminish tonight with the loss of daytime heating.  Look for partly cloudy conditions to stay put with mild overnight lows.

 

Wed – Partly Sunny; Iso’d Storms – High 89º / Wed Night – Scattered Strong-Severe Storms – Low 70º

Wednesday will start what appears to be an active weather day across the region. The latest model data suggest that a complex of thunderstorms will develop across the northern Central Plains and work southeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley Region and eventually into the Ohio Valley. Much of the Commonwealth will lie under the surface warm front which is expected to ride just northward of the Ohio River.

With a large area under this warm front, you can expect a surge in temperatures along with plenty of rich moisture from the gulf. Precipitable water values will range from 1.6-1.8’’ across southern Kentucky with projected dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60’s, lower 70’s. Accompany this juicy atmosphere, along with plenty of instability and lift from the approaching front, this will provide the ingredients for strong-severe storm development.

In fact, the latest Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook has the entire state of Kentucky under this slight risk for severe weather as much of the Ohio Valley Region will be under the gun. This slight risk includes Bowling Green as threats with any storm development tomorrow will consist of heavy rain, damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

 

The SPC probabilistic outlook puts Bowling Green right on the line of an increased risk for severe weather. Needless to say, it will be very important to monitor this event and stay weather aware over the next 24 hours.

 

 

Thu – Partly Sunny, Sct’d Storms – High 78º / Thu Night – Partly Cloudy, Pleasant – Low 63º

The front will continue its track southeastward into the Tennessee Valley Region late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. The passing front could provide an additional shower or storm before the front finally clears southern Kentucky by late Thursday morning. Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the front as conditions will be much more comfortable.

Friday will shape up to be a relatively nice day across the area as mostly sunny conditions take over. Overall, I think we end the work week on a calm and refreshing note before conditions heat back up and storm chances make their way back to the forecast by the weekend.

That’s all I have for now, folks. With the threat for severe weather lurking for tomorrow, be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. Wishing everyone a great evening!