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Real-Time Regional Radars:
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Today 5/22 – Scat’d Storms; Some Strong to Severe – High 87° / Tonight – Storms Ending – Low 62°
Yesterday, the cap that was in place over the region held tightly, keeping any storms that did manage to form well below severe limits in western Kentucky. Today, capping will not be as much of an issue. Due to this, I expect the thunderstorm coverage to be greater this afternoon and evening. We have a cold front slowly moving southward that will enhance lift over the region.
We’ve been placed in a warm & moist air mass for several days. This means conditions will be ripe for thunderstorm development. A key factor in forecasting severe weather is checking to see if we’ll have any instability.
According to the latest data, we’ll have quite a bit of instability. This, again, is due to the fact that we have been placed in a warm and moist air mass for several days. Instability values are maxed out over southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee.
We also need to look at wind shear when forecasting severe weather. Speed shear is essential for severe weather development because it tilts updrafts in thunderstorm, allowing for a more mature thunderstorm.
The diagram below is a Skew-T. Meteorologists use Skew T’s for various reasons, but I’ll be using it to display the speed shear in place tomorrow. Notice the different wind speeds at different altitudes. This is enough shear to cause thunderstorms to mature, meaning they’re capable of severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring our region for severe weather this afternoon & evening. They have placed Bowling Green in a slight (think enhanced) risk of severe weather. It is depicted by the yellow shaded areas:
Damaging wind and large hail will be the main hazards associated with any severe storms that area able to organize. With that being said, any generalized storms that form will be capable of producing vivid lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds.
Friday 5/24 – Departing Storms – High 79° / Fri Night – Clearing Skies – Low 58°
With the passage of the cold front on Thursday evening and night, a nice day is in store for Friday. Morning showers and thunderstorms should give way to clearing skies in the afternoon. This is because high pressure will be moving into the region, which will stabilize the environment and clear out any clouds and precipitation. In other words, an awesome weekend is in store. Is there really much more to say? Our temperatures will slowly descend into the upper 50s…much like this girl’s face.
Saturday 5/25 – Sunny – High 80° / Sat Night – Some Clouds – Low 57°
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather story. This means we can expect some pretty awesome conditions for a Saturday. Moisture content in the atmosphere will be low, so that will keep the humidity values down as well. There will be a slight breeze from the northwest, but it won’t be anything to shake up any plans. It’s basically the most ideal conditions for a Saturday in the park. Just be sure to watch your children…
That wraps it up for this blog post. Remember that severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be damaging winds and large hail. Remember to rely on your weather radios for warnings, and be sure to have multiple sources for severe weather information. Stay tuned to @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather information.