Thursday Afternoon Update

This Afternoon – Partly Sunny & Breezy – High 85˚ / Tonight – Increasing Clouds; Iso’d Storms – Low 65˚

3pm 84˚ – 6pm 81˚ – 9pm 76˚ – 12am 70˚ – 3am 67˚ – 6am 65˚

Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast to hang around throughout the remainder of today.  This will occur as winds pick up from out of the southwest, topping out around 10-25mph.

Tonight, a cold front will approach from the west, causing cloud cover to increase across the area.  A few isolated storms will be possible late.  The surface model below gives you a visual of what’s occurring:

Surface Model Valid 3pm

Fri – Showers & Storms Likely – High 77˚ / Fri Night – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 60˚

Hit & miss showers and storms will accompany us through Friday morning.  More widespread activity is anticipated from mid afternoon on.  Rain chances will increase as the day progresses.  The following NAM simulated radar loops every 3 hours from 7am – 10pm Friday.  This should give you a better idea of when the rain may hit:

NAM simulated radar loop valid 7am - 10pm Fri
source: weatherbell.com

Severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon & night, but not likely.  The Storm Prediction Center says you will have a 5% probability of seeing severe weather occur within 25 miles of you:

SPC Convective Outlook Friday
source: spc.noaa.gov

Main threats with any storm that develops will be heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small hail and gusty winds.  Lay that umbrella out…it’s gonna be a wet one on the evening commute.  Yes, there’s a good chance your outdoor plans may need a backup, indoor plan.

Sat – Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 77˚ / Sat Night – Iso’d Storms – Low 64˚

The cold front will take its sweet time pressing east of the area, which will keep scattered showers & storms in the forecast throughout the weekend.  Fantastic, right?  Total rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1-2″ by the time it’s all said & done.

As I mentioned this morning, if you’re a soccer or baseball parent…keep an eye on the skies tomorrow morning.  Actually, that goes for anyone with outdoor plans this weekend.

That’ll wrap up the afternoon update.  As always, stay connected to @WarrenCountyWx & @WxOrNotBG on twitter for the latest in real-time weather information.