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Today – Scat’d Showers & Storms, BREEZY – High 78˚ / Tonight – Storms Likely – Low 59˚
6am 57˚ ~ 9am 66˚ ~ 12pm 73˚ ~ 3pm 77˚ ~ 6pm 72˚ ~ 9pm 69˚
**Severe thunderstorms expected tonight. Have a NOAA Weather Radio or other reliable source to notify you of watches & warnings.**
A deepening low pressure system is currently cutting a path northeast out of the Great Plains toward the Great Lakes. This system’s associated warm front is located to our north, which puts us in the warm sector of this weather maker.
In response, southerly winds of 15-25mph will advect warm, moist air into the region. Combine this increasing moisture with an unstable airmass that’s currently in place, and we have all the ingredients needed to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Utilize the radar to keep up with the activity:
It will not rain all day, however, you will want to have that umbrella handy, just in case. Severe storms are not expected, but with that being said, a few strong storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.
My attention continues to gravitate towards tonight, when this system’s cold front will surge west to east across our proximity. With this added forcing, a strong squall line of storms is expected to organize and propagate eastward ahead of the boundary (cold front).
The following NAM simulated radar loops every 3 hours from 7pm this evening – 7am Friday. This should give you a better idea of how the event may unfold:
Severe weather will be possible within this potential line of convection, with main threats being damaging winds of 40-50+mph, small hail, frequent lightning and torrential rainfall. Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. The time frame of highest concern looks to occur between midnight – 6am Friday.
The latest convective outlook from the SPC brings a moderate risk of severe weather just to our west, while keeping south central Kentucky in a slight risk:
Fri – Scat’d AM Showers & Storms – High 68˚ / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 48˚
Scattered showers and storms will continue to pester us through the early part of our Friday, but the severe weather threat should diminish completely by mid morning. By the time this system is finished with us, we can expect anywhere from 1-3″ of rainfall. This is supported by the QPF outlook below:
High pressure will build in behind the departing system, gradually clearing our skies as we get into the afternoon. For Friday night, we’ll be partly cloudy and quiet.
Sat – Sunny & Nice – High 58˚ / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 38˚
High pressure is slated to park directly overhead on Saturday, giving us very nice conditions to start the weekend. Light and variable winds will couple with plenty of sunshine to give us a very tolerable afternoon high in the mid – upper 50s. With any luck, a few of us may even break the 60˚ threshold.
A weak disturbance looks to work over the region on Sunday, bringing us our next chance at seeing scattered showers. Although we may see a bit of rain, temps should hold in the low 60s.
That will wrap things up for now. Be sure to stay connected with @WarrenCountyWx & @WxOrNotBG for the latest in real-time weather info, including our evolving severe weather chances. Have a great day, and stay dry. Thanks for reading.