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Today 4/2 – Partly Sunny, Iso’d Storms – High 79˚ / Tonight – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 60˚
6am 55˚ ~ 9am 62˚ ~ 12pm 73˚ ~ 3pm 78˚ ~ 6pm 76˚ ~ 9pm 69˚
Stationary front draped north of the area this morning has been the focus for isolated scattered thunderstorm development. While the majority of us should remain dry under partly sunny skies today, a few could experience a stray storm or two this afternoon. We’ll keep similar conditions around through the entirety of our Wednesday. Follow the activity with the radar provided:
This evening, the stationary front will transition to a warm front, as it continues to lift north of the viewing area. This will place us in the warm sector of an evolving low pressure system to our northwest, which will result in scattered showers and storms closer to dawn on Thursday.
Severe weather is not expected, however, any storms that do develop could produce frequent lighting, along with torrential rainfall and gusty winds.
Thu – Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 75˚ / Thu Night – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 59˚
As the parent low cuts northeast toward the Great Lakes, a trailing cold front will approach the region from our west. In response, upper level waves of energy ahead of the boundary will coincide with available moisture & instability to keep scattered showers & storms in the forecast.
As we get into Thursday night, our conditions could get a bit more interesting. As parameters organize as the front plows east across the region, organized convection could intensify to meet severe criteria.
Here’s a look at the latest convective outlook front the Storm Prediction Center, valid for Thursday night. Our area has been upgraded to a 30% probability of seeing severe weather occur within 25 miles of you:
The most recent data continues to suggest the potential for a strong squall line of storms to organize ahead of the cold front, bringing the threat of damaging winds of 40-50+mph, large hail, frequent lighting & heavy rain. Although unlikely, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. Here’s what the NAM Simulated Radar model is thinking conditions will look like 4am Friday morning. That’s one beast of a squall:
Fri – Scat’d AM Storms, Partly Sunny – High 66˚ / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 40˚
Any leftover activity should progress east of our coverage area early Friday. If all goes as planned, high pressure should take over by late afternoon, giving us sunny, tolerable conditions to end the work week on. The GFS pressure model below, valid for 7pm Friday, agrees:
Our Saturday and Sunday look to provide similar conditions, however, temperatures will be limited to the mid – upper 50s, as light and variable winds out of the north flow in.
That will be all for the morning update, folks. As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG & @WarrenCountyWx for the latest in real time weather information. Be sure to check back in as we provide updates on our pending severe weather situation. Enjoy your Wednesday, and thanks for reading.