Wednesday Afternoon Update

Afternoon forecast…the dog says it all.

This Afternoon – Partly Sunny – High 58˚ / Tonight – Scat’d Storms – Low 48˚

3pm 58˚ ~ 6pm 52˚ ~ 9pm 49˚ ~ 12am 48˚ ~ 3am 51˚ ~ 6am 54˚

High pressure has provided partly to mostly sunny skies across the region today.  As we get later into this evening, cloud cover will begin to increase, as a warm front approaches from our south.  Here’s a look at the current surface conditions:

With sufficient parameters in place, scattered thunderstorms are expected to fire after midnight.  These storms should be elevated, bringing threats of torrential rain and lightning.  Small hail may also be a possibility.

 Thu – Storms Likely, BREEZY – High 76˚ / Thu Night – Storms Likely – Low 37˚

*Severe Weather Possible*

We’ll be fully engulfed in the warm sector as the warm front propagates to our north as we get into the daylight hours of our Thursday.  I expect a lull in activity until we get into the afternoon.  While this lull is taking place, potent, southerly winds of 30-40+mph will begin to impact our area, pumping our atmosphere full of moist, destabilizing air.

As a result, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to evolve as we get into the afternoon.  A few of these could meet severe criteria.  My main focus continues to be from late afternoon – late evening.

Ingredients available in the atmosphere during this time frame look to provide an environment capable of producing a strong squall line of convection.  If this comes to fruition, main threats will be damaging winds, torrential rain and lightning.  Isolated tornadoes embedded within the squall could also evolve.  The NAM model loop below is separated hourly from 4pm – 9pm Thursday:

Please stay up to date as this weather maker continues to evolve.  I’ll be updating frequently via Twitter, so be sure to stay in touch.  As with any forecast, this may or may not happen.  The bottom line…be prepared, regardless.

Fri – Partly Sunny – High 55˚ / Fri Night – Clear – Low 33˚

High pressure will take over as the cold front passes to our east, giving us rays of sunshine to soak in for the last day of the work week.  I guess both figuratively and literally it will be the “Calm after the storm.”  Outside of that, nothing much to talk about.  Light westerly winds will limit highs to the mid 50s, which will eventually tumble into the lower 30s Friday night.

That’s all I’ve got for now, folks.  Stay in touch with @WarrenCountyWx & @Wx_Or_Not for the latest weather on our potential for severe weather.  Enjoy what’s left of your Wednesday, and thanks for reading.