Winter Storm On The Horizon

“Did you say…sledding??”

Today 1/4 – Sunny & BREEZY – High 42˚ / Tonight – Wintry Mix Late – Low 32˚

Southerly winds of 10-20mph will take over the region today, as high pressure pushes off to our east.  Sunny skies will coincide with these swift breezes to usher temperature values into the lower 40s this afternoon.

An Arctic cold front approaching from our west will spawn a wintry mix that is expected to take over Bowling Green and the rest of south central Kentucky after midnight.  Little to not accumulation is expected.  The model provdied shows what the current surface conditions look like:

Sun – Rain to Snow, BLUSTERY – High 37˚ / Sun Night – Scat’d Snow Showers – Low 0˚

**Winter Weather Advisory for all of south central Kentucky from 3pm Sunday – 12am Monday**

A warm nose of air will work across south central Kentucky as a stout low pressure system passes overhead.  This will create a transition from a wintry mix to all rain through midday, with a transition to all snow expected during the afternoon.

We should experience the heaviest snowfall between 1pm – 5pm.  Have a look at the GFS model loop below for a better understanding of how the low will behave as it creates our wintry mess.  Notice the transition to all snow as the cold air spills in behind the low as it propagates to our northeast.  This loop is valid from 12am Sunday – 6am Monday in 6 hour increments:

As the parent low and associated cold front continues to advance farther east, wind gusts will pick up to 20-30+mph.  This will have detrimental impacts on traveling, as visibility issues will coincide with slick roads to create an absolute nightmare.  If you can avoid traveling…DO SO.  Another concern worth taking note of is the potential for power outages.  With the brutal cold and stout winds, it’s a very real possibility.

Brutal cold will sweep across the region Sunday evening and night.  Overnight lows look to plummet to near 0˚F.  Yes…you read that correctly.  Scattered snow showers will continue until early Monday morning, when we’ll eventually taper off to flurries.

Now for the million dollar question…how much snow!?  My original thoughts haven’t changed after analyzing the latest data.  I took a chance mentioning snow totals yesterday afternoon, and I feel very comfortable sticking to my guns.

I expect to see up to 1-3+” of the white stuff in and around Bowling Green.  Those located farther north and west will have a better opportunity at seeing 2-5+” of snow on the ground.  Keep in mind…even if we don’t get much snow, traveling will be virtually impossible thanks to the plummeting temperatures.

The following image displays the probability of seeing ≥4″ of snow between 12am Sunday and 12am Monday.  I have overlaid the probability percentages to help you better comprehend.  Bowling Green currently resides in a 20% probability of seeing this come to fruition:

Mon – Scat’d Flurries, BRRRRR – High 3˚ / Mon Night – HOLY COLD!! – Low -5˚

Brutal cold is all that needs to be said about the start of the work week.  If we do get a significant snow Sunday (which is possible), folks will want to get outside & play.

It is important to keep in mind that with these temperature readings, frostbite will be a very real concern.  DO NOT let kids g0 outside with exposed skin…same goes for all of you snow-loving adults out there as well.  Frostbite can occur within 10-15 minutes with the temperatures we’ll be dealing with.  Aside from Monday afternoon highs only reaching the low single digits, wind chills are forecast to be subzero.  Teeth-chattering…wouldn’t you say?

That’s all I’ve got.  As always, stay in touch with me @Wx_Or_Not for more frequent information.  Have a question, report, or photo you’d like to share/submit?  Get it to me there.  Everyone have a great day.