Thursday Afternoon Update

This Afternoon – Blustery – 23˚ & falling – Tonight – Decreasing Clouds – Low 15˚

3pm 22˚ ~ 6pm 21˚ ~ 9pm 20˚ ~ 12am 20˚ ~ 3am 17˚ ~ 6am 15˚

After a round of blowing snow this morning, conditions have dried out to an extent, however, a few light, scattered snow showers still exist.  Judging from reports, accumulation forecast was right on the money, with the majority of people seeing anywhere from a dusting – 1″ across south central Kentucky.  Expect northwesterly winds of 20-30mph to continue through the afternoon, which will keep wind chills in the single digits.  Overnight, we’ll see clouds begin to break up, as lows tumble into the teens.  Be careful on the evening commute, folks…roads will be slick.

Fri – Partly Sunny – High 31˚ / Fri Night – Clear – Low 21˚

High pressure will move directly overhead tomorrow, giving us a mix of sun & clouds to go along with a bitter cold airmass.  This area of high pressure is illustrated by the model provided, which is valid for 6am Friday morning:

Light, northerly winds will keep wind chills in the low teens throughout our Friday.  Outside of the cold, there isn’t much to talk about.  BUNDLE UP!

Sat – Partly Sunny – High 44˚ / Sat Night – Scat’d Rain & Snow Showers – Low 33˚

High pressure will be working off to our east as another low pressure system takes shape to our north, near the Great Lakes.  Partly sunny skies will give way to scattered rain & snow showers on Saturday night, with little impact expected.

Historic COLD, Wintry Weather Possible Saturday Night – Tuesday

The latest model guidance has raised concerns regarding our upcoming weather pattern.  A polar impulse of energy will dive close to the Great Lakes, spawning a potent low pressure system that looks to remain in Canada Saturday night into Sunday.  A stout, associated cold front will surge southeast across our area through this time, bringing with it the opportunity at widespread rain & snow showers.

As expected, the freeze line will dance across the viewing area, with lows seemingly hanging around the freezing threshold on Saturday night.  This will make for a real pain when attempting to produce a forecast.  As for now, I won’t mention any accumulation amounts, as it’s still up in the air as to what type of precipitation we’ll see fall from the sky.  The GFS loop provided is valid in 6 hour increments from 12am Sunday – 12am Monday.  It likes the idea of frozen precip through this time:

Take note that available moisture will provide the POTENTIAL for a nice coating of snow across the region.  We’ll either get that, or a nice amount of cold rain.  A secondary front looks to bring a reinforcement of cold air to the region as we get into Monday night, which may send temperatures plummeting to historic, sub-freezing values.  Much remains to be seen with how this weather maker evolves.  Just know that the potential for significant snow and historic cold will exist.

That’s all I’ve got for the afternoon update.  I’ll return tomorrow morning with a fresh analysis of the latest data.  Until then, stay in touch @Wx_Or_Not for more frequent information.  If you haven’t yet, don’t forget to check out the weather gallery for photos from across the region of today’s snow.  Have a photo you’d like to share?  Get it to me via Facebook or Twitter.  Have a great evening.