Active Week Ahead - @wxornotBG

Today – Increasing Clouds, Iso’d Showers – High 65 / Tonight – Cloudy – Low 45

7am 41 ~ 10am 50 ~ 1pm 62 ~ 4pm 65 ~ 7pm 58

A weak upper level disturbance passing to our south will place isolated/scattered showers in the forecast today. Outside of that, increasing clouds through this evening, as a surface boundary approaches from our south.

Tues – Iso’d Showers & Storms – High 68 / Tues Night – Scat’d Showers – Low 56

7am 46 ~ 10am 55 ~ 1pm 64 ~ 4pm 68 ~ 7pm 60

Stationary front will begin to pass to our north while transitioning to a warm front, which will lay the foundation for showers and storm chances to develop. Areas of precip should remain isolated throughout the day, with a more scattered variety possible Tuesday night. No severe weather is expected. Here is a look at the latest surface model, which is valid for 7am Tuesday morning:

Wed – Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 71 / Wed Night – Scat’d Showers – Low 59

7am 56 ~ 10am 64 ~ 1pm 68 ~ 4pm 71 ~ 7pm 62

More of the same, friends. Warm front will be located to our north, as an associated low pressure system begins to advance toward the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and storms will remain in the forecast as a result. Severe weather still not expected.

I’m continuing to keep a very close eye on Halloween (Thursday), as it looks like a strong weather maker will evolve across south central Kentucky. A potent cold front looks to advance west to east across our proximity, with given parameters suggesting the potential for at least a few strong, possibly severe, thunderstorms. Here is the latest thickness model for 7pm Thursday evening:

The details are still a bit murky, however, I’ll be more comfortable diving into a closer analysis tomorrow. Until then, please keep note of this system, as the latest ensembles suggest the possibility of an evening passage…the worse possible scenario for all of the trick-or-treaters out there.

That’s going to wrap up the morning forecast, friends. I’ll return this afternoon with another breakdown of our weather pattern. Enjoy the start to the work week.