Severe Weather Possible Once Again

Happy Thursday to all of you out there! I hope everyone has had a great work week so far and has been enjoying the wonderful weather! Unfortunately, that streak of nice weather is about to change with severe weather in the forecast once again.

Raining African Cats GIF by Nat Geo Wild
We Just Want the Sun to Come Back Out (giphy)


Starting off, the SPC has all of WABBLES right in the middle of a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather and an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) just to our south.

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Now, these risk levels put out by the SPC are useless unless we understand what they each mean, so below is a graphic that they provide giving detailed information about each risk category.

SPC Risk Categories

Alright, let’s dive into this, hi-res model guidance wants to have showers going throughout the day up until the time severe weather will be possible (roughly 1:00 pm to 6:00 pm).

Model Future Radar this Morning – Early Afternoon (

During that severe weather timeframe I just mentioned, we will see a likely mess of storms move through and being quickly followed by a broken line of storms as the cold front passes through the area. This broken lone of storms will be where we can see the highest risk of damaging winds. The threat for a few tornadoes will be present throughout the duration of this event.

Model Future Radar this Afternoon – Evening (

If these rain showers in the morning and very early afternoon are persistent as the models are wanting them to be, it will help keep the atmosphere more stable. If the atmosphere is stable, there won’t be very much “fuel” for these storms to get ahold of and cause problems.

Model Mixed-Layer Cape this Afternoon (Pivotal Weather)

While the limited instability is great at helping to mitigate some severe weather, the upper level winds will be almost off the charts. This very strong wind energy will be enough to overcome some of the lack of instability and produce a threat for severe weather like we have today. As I have mentioned before, this is very common for wintertime severe weather setups.

Model Wind Speeds 2km Above the Surface this Afternoon (Pivotal Weather)

The good news, if you even want to call it that, will be that we will be facing a more dominant threat of damaging winds instead of tornadoes. Now, the threat for tornadoes will still be present and will need to be taken very seriously, but I believe the majority of problems tomorrow will be caused by damaging winds (60 mph+).

SPC Damaging Wind Probabilities
SPC Tornado Probabilities

The takeaways:

  • A threat for severe storms will exist from 1:00 pm to 6:00 pm
  • Damaging winds will be the main concern
  • A few tornadoes will also be possible
  • Have more than 2 ways to receive warnings (sirens do not count)
  • Have a safety plan ready in the event a warning is issued for your area.

That will be it for this blog post! I hope everyone enjoys today as much as they can and that everyone will be safe out there. I will have out social media sites linked below where you can visit us and stay up to date with frequent updates.

Have a blessed day.