Growing Risk for Flash Flooding and Severe Storms

We have active weather ongoing across the Commonwealth this morning an it is only going to get more active as the day wares on. The risk for flash flooding and severe weather are on the table for WABBLES. Here is the latest information and what we are expecting to unfold over the next 24 hours.

Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

Flash Flood Threat Today

Looking at radar right now WABBLES is fairing pretty well, but activity is starting to pick up off to our west. Here is look at radar as of 7am this morning.

Heavy rain to the west will start to approach later this morning. (COD)

We have a frontal boundary that is stalled right across Kentucky. Unfortunately, the data has been wanting to place this boundary across Southern KY later today. This will make WABBLES the focus for rounds of heavy rainfall. Here is look at future radar through early Monday morning.

Storms this afternoon will have to potential to drop over 1in per hour rainfall rates. When we see these storms start to move over the same locations repeatedly, the risk for flash flooding starts to grow. Looking at the future radar loop above you can tell these storms are very slow to move out of Kentucky.

A heavy band of rain will likely develop later today. (Pivotal Weather)

Most of the hi-resolution model data this morning is showing a band if 4-5in+ developing later today. These type of rainfall totals will cause flash flooding issues quickly on a ground that is already saturated. Exactly who sees these heavy amounts is hard to determine, but locations in and around WABBLES may see serious flash flooding issues develop today.

Moderate risk for flash flooding (Pivotal Weather)

The Weather Prediction Center has placed us under a moderate risk for flash flooding. This is relatively rare to see, especially in late February. This basically means that most of Kentucky is at a much greater risk to see flash flooding develop than normal.

Rainfall totals for the past 2 days. (KY mesonet)

The image above shows what has already fallen across Kentucky. Most of WABBLES has already seen well over an inch of rain. Now if you add 2-4in+ on top of that, then you are going to have issues.

Again not everyone will see flooding at their location. Although, if your home or neighborhood floods easily, today is the day to have plan in case those flooding issues do come to fruition.

My fellow WABBELerS, we come back to this every year. It appears that time is upon us. We know our loyal followers like you understand, but it is time to spread the word again.

Turn Around Don’t Drown! #AvoidFairview

Here is a great graphic below showing just how powerful water can be. Again, avoid those flooded roadways today!

See the source image

Summary on Flash Flooding Risk

  • Heavy rounds of rain move in by this afternoon.
  • Rainfall totals of 2-4in are likely
  • Localized band of 4-5in+ will be possible.
  • Flash Flood Watch until Monday morning.

Severe Threat

The Storm Prediction Center has placed WABBLES under a Marginal and Slight risk for severe weather later today. We may have storms this afternoon that go severe and it is something we will need to monitor.

What is severe weather?

Hail of 1 in or larger &/or winds 58mph+ is a severe thunderstorm.

This is a possible threat this afternoon/evening. We will also need to watch the potential for an isolated tornado. While this threat is low, we will have enough wind shear to cause storms to rotate later today.

Hail, strong winds, and an isolated tornado are all possible through this evening. Stay weather aware.

Severe weather has already been reported near Paducah this morning.

Tonight – Monday

We will see everything shift south of the area as we head into tonight. Dry conditions should return tomorrow. Temperatures will be bumped down for highs as we only touch the low 50s to start the week.

Future radar on Monday. (Pivotal Weather)

The clouds will be tough to shake through our Monday, but we may receive a few peeks of sun by the end of the day. Fingers crossed!

Future cloud cover on Monday. (Pivotal Weather)

That will do it for today, folks! Stay abreast to the changing weather situation today as we have a lot of active weather moving our way. We will continually update on our social media pages @wxornotbg. Have a great Sunday everyone!