A dry couple of days this week was a much welcomed relief from the brutal cold a week ago. We are now looking at a wet pattern for the next few days as rounds of rainfall are set to move through WABBLES. Today we will time out the rain and look at amounts as the wet weather makes a return on the region.
Right Now and Today
Looking at current radar, we have a lot of heavy rainfall to our south this morning. The good news is that all of this is not moving our way. These storms are moving eastward and are training over the same locations. This will likely cause flooding problems for folks across the Deep South and Tennessee Valley.
A stalled frontal boundary is going to be the focus for rainfall this weekend. We will come back to that in a minute.
Looking at future radar, we will likely see batches of light-moderate rain move in later today. Flooding issues should remain minimal as we will only see a 0.25″ of rain through tonight.
Current temperatures are sitting in the low-40s across the area. Temperatures will struggle into the low-50s this afternoon as our first round of moisture surges in. Temperatures are only expected to go up into the weekend, especially if the boundary lifts northward.
Tonight – Saturday
Tonight we will go into a lull from the rain as the frontal boundary starts to move north. A few scattered showers will be possible, but most of our Saturday is looking dry. Here is future radar from midnight to 5pm on Saturday.
Clouds will hang around all day tomorrow, but temperatures will begin to rebound. Highs will be near 60 degrees Saturday afternoon again with mostly dry conditions expected during the day. Winds remain relatively calm through tomorrow.
Saturday Night – Sunday
Problems start to arise heading into Saturday night. The frontal boundary we had been talking about previously has now lifted northward and is sitting across the Commonwealth. Here is the surface map for Saturday night and into Sunday.
Now there may be some good news for WABBELS. Most of the data wants to focus the strongest forcing for heavy rain just to our north Saturday night- Sunday. This would put the heaviest rainfall along the Ohio River and near Louisville. Here is how future radar sees it unfolding.
We likely have a few showers/storms move in Sunday morning before most of the activity lifts to our north. It is very possible we do not see a lot of rain Saturday night and into Sunday. Here is where the Weather Prediction Center thinks the highest flash flood threat will be on Saturday night.
Here are the rainfall totals through Sunday at noon. As this model depicts, most of WABBLES has stayed well under 1in of rain through noon on Sunday. It all depends where that boundary sets up Saturday night. If it is farther south then we will see the risk for heavy rain shift south. This is something we will have to keep a close eye on.
Sunday Afternoon – Monday
Eventually the stalled front will shift south by Sunday afternoon. We will see our rain chances rapidly go up by then with still a soaker looking likely for our Sunday. Flash flooding concerns will have to be monitored. If we can avoid the heavy, training thunderstorms then our flooding issues will remain minimal.
Rainfall totals will range from 1-3in across our area through Monday. Looking at the WPC rainfall map you can see that potential gap across Western and Central Kentucky. Below is the total rainfall expected for the entire event.
The severe risk will also be low through this weekend. A rouge strong storm cannot be ruled out, but widespread severe weather is NOT expected at this time.
- Light to moderate rain possible later today
- Drying out tonight with a lull in the action through tomorrow evening.
- Next round moves in Saturday night. (Heaviest stays north)
- Most of WABBLES rain comes Sunday afternoon- Monday morning.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3in are expected.
- Closely monitoring the flash flood threat.
That’s all for today, everyone! We hope you have a great end to the work week! You can stay updated on the latest weather information! Follow us at @wxornotBG on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram!