Sunny Today, But Rain On the Way

Good Wednesday morning folks, and welcome to wxornotBG. I hope your week has been treating you well so far. Luckily it will be sunny today, but rain is on the way to end the work week.

Quiet Wednesday

Today will be our last day of beautiful sunshine for the week… so enjoy it! A weak and dry cold front will be passing through the Ohio Valley today, but the only noticeable change should be the wind direction and temperatures.

Wednesday Weather Outlook (WPC)

Our high temperature for today will be around 50ºF, which is slightly warmer than normal (which is 45ºF). Winds will remain light today, making for a pretty great January day.

Should be a perfect day! (Giphy)

We stay clear as we progress into the overnight hours. Temperatures will dip down to a warmer than normal 33ºF, but that’s still quite chilly in my book. Tomorrow is when change begins.

Active Pattern Begins Thursday

We will start off our Thursday dry, but clouds will be increasing ahead of the next approaching weather system.

Thursday Weather Outlook (WPC)

Temperatures will reach a warm 57ºF during the afternoon, with strong winds helping to raise those temperatures. Winds will be out of the south, pulling warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph.

Very windy on Thursday will make for a bad hair day and warmer temperatures. (Pivotal Weather)

Rain chances arrive for the later hours on Thursday, but model guidance is hinting that we could stay dry until Friday. Even if we get some rain tomorrow, the main event will be Friday and Saturday.

When stepping outside…. (Giphy)

Otherwise, Thursday night will be warm. The strong south winds of 10-20 mph with 30 mph gusts will continue, which will help keep temperatures much, much warmer than normal. The low temperature is expected to be around 50ºF, which if you didn’t forget, is the forecast high temperature for today. Normal low temperatures for early January is 26ºF, so we will be double that. Certainly will have to look into the warmest low temperature record data.

Rain-Soaking Friday and Saturday

Greater rain chances are on Friday and Saturday as the slow moving front approaches. These slow moving heavy rain showers should cause some flooding issues. Here is a quote from the National Weather Service with their thinking:

A slow moving, nearly stationary at times, frontal boundary will be draped from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region Thursday night through much of Saturday. Waves of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary and bring multiple rounds of rainfall.

The heaviest rains look to fall late Friday into Saturday as the frontal boundary advances eastward with a strong area of low pressure. The heavy rains during this timeframe would be falling on potentially saturated soils, which would result in an increased risk of flash flooding in addition to areal and river flooding.

What this weekend will be like… (Giphy)

Showers will be in the area throughout the day, but by looking at the GFS below, shows the best chance comes later on Friday, as mentioned by the NWS.

GFS guidance of how it thinks Friday will look (Pivotal Weather)

Besides the rain, Friday will be another warm day. The forecast high is 63ºF, and the low is 57ºF. Certainly will be a scorcher outside with temperatures like that in January.

The heaviest rain looks to be late Friday and early Saturday. The GFS shows a rather heavy wave of rain and possibly even some embedded thunderstorms make their way into the area.

GFS guidance hinting at heavy rain and maybe even some thunderstorms for Saturday (Pivotal Weather).

This wave of showers and thunderstorms will move east and out of the area by 6 pm on Saturday. This system is expected to move slow, so I wouldn’t be surprised if showers drag on for a few hours later than 6 pm, but we will have to wait and see on that.

Flooding Concerns

All of this rain will create some flooding concerns. Here’s another quote from our friends at the National Weather Service with their thinking:

Current thinking is that a widespread 2-4″ (with locally heavier amounts) of rain will be possible across southern Indiana and western/central Kentucky west of I-65. East of the I-65 corridor across central Kentucky, rainfall amounts will generally be in the 1.5-3″ range.

Depending on storm track and overall frontal boundary evolution, the heaviest axis of precipitation could shift in the coming days, so these numbers may increase/decrease as we get closer to the event.

Heavy Rainfall Potential (NWS Louisville)

Regardless, we will get some soaking rainfall. With rain falling on already saturated ground, there will not be much room for additional rainfall to be absorbed into the ground. This will create flooding concerns.

It’s important for folks who live near low-lying areas or near creeks/streams to keep updated on the latest forecast. Be prepared for possible flooding this weekend. And as we always say… Avoid Fairview!

That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Wednesday! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.