Scorching Heat Continues

We were able to take a brief break from the most scorching of the heat yesterday (well, it’s all relative, Bowling Green hit 93º on Saturday). High pressure took over, introducing northwesterly winds and lower humidity. We’ll keep the lower humidity for one more day but the mercury’s on the way back up as scorching heat continues.

Mid-90s Back Sunday

This morning's surface chart (WPC) — This morning’s surface chart (WPC)

It was a brief break but, with the center of high pressure now situated just off to our east, we’ll welcome back scorching heat to the area thanks to light southerly breezes.

*tugs at shirt collar* (Pivotal Weather)

Even models like the HRRR may not be taking just how dry the ground is into account (and it is dry…as a frame of reference, we’re basically at the halfway point of the month and have seen just a trace of rain), so this means temperatures even higher than seen here.

Highs this afternoon should top out around 95º once again as we’ll be lucky to see the clouds that do pop up…with no rain in sight. Good news (if there is any): it won’t be overly muggy, with dew points in the low 60s, keeping heat indices from getting out of control. Falling back to around 65º for another dry overnight.

And Then We Up the Humidity

As we start the work week, it’ll be same old, same old as we get another scorching day.

Dry weather once again, but we start re-introducing low-level moisture to the forecast. This will result in both higher humidity values and higher heat indices. Dew points slowly rise into the mid 60s, allowing that high of 95º to feel closer to about 97º. Not off the charts…but you’ll feel it.

When you step outside tomorrow. (Kim's Convenience/Giphy) — When you step outside tomorrow. (Kim’s Convenience/Giphy)

A passing disturbance may trigger a storm off to the north…but that’s about as close as any rainfall will get.

qThe NAM trying to give us excitement with *gasp* ONE STORM! Still think we'll be too dry. (Pivotal Weather) — The NAM trying to give us excitement with *gasp* ONE STORM! Still think we’ll be too dry. (Pivotal Weather)

We may see a slight increase in cloudiness thanks to this disturbance…but overall, I think most of us will stay dry. Lows overnight slink back to that muggy 65º mark.

Slightly Milder…But Still Hot

The front associated with Monday’s system will attempt to clear the area…and unlike previous fronts, it will affect the temperatures…and not the dew points.

Both major models, including the GFS here, have been running low due to not factoring in how dry we are. (Pivotal Weather)

Northeasterly post-frontal winds will usher in highs right around 90º, while keeping the slightly muggy air around, with dew points in the mid 60s. This means heat indices not far from the air temperature…which (after multiple highs at or above 95º) seems tolerable.

Another hot and muggy afternoon cools to a mild and muggy overnight, under mostly clear skies, temperatures fall to near 65º.

We Call it a Persistence Forecast

…mostly because it just sticks around. An upper-level ridge hangs on for much of the rest of the work week, keeping us stuck in the summer version of Groundhog Day with mostly sunny skies and highs near 90º during the day, with mostly clear skies and lows around 65º every night. But hey, at least you have the possibility of meeting Bill Murray.

That just about does it for me! Follow our live weather feed @wxornotbg for the latest updates on that stagnant work week forecast. Have a terrific Sunday!