Chilly Today with Afternoon Showers

Happy Thursday to everyone, break out the jackets again as we will be chilly today with afternoon showers. After a dreary high in the mid 40’s, two days of quiet, but cloudy weather are ahead before our next weather-maker arrives Sunday.

via giphy

February Ends with a Little More Rain

We only need 0.19 of an inch of rain to break the February monthly record, and we will likely get it. (via pivotalwx)
We only need 0.19 of an inch of rain to break the February monthly precipitation record. (via pivotalwx)

On the last day of what could be our ‘official’ wettest February on record, we are staring down a chance of light rain showers beginning around noon. Meanwhile, temperatures stay locked in the cool mid 40’s all day.

That's what she said. (via tenor)
–said the atmosphere (via tenor)

The rain will end by the late evening (~8 p.m.) before temperatures slump into the mid 30’s for overnight lows.

Quiet But Cloudy Into the Weekend

via tenor
via tenor

Tomorrow and Saturday look to feature pretty quiet weather: highs will hang around the mid 40’s tomorrow and low 50’s Saturday under mostly cloudy skies. Sprinkles are possible over the next days, but are barely worth mentioning really.

Weather Maker Coming Sunday

Set up for Sunday's potential winter storm. (via WPC)
Set up for Sunday’s potential winter storm. (via WPC)

Sunday will feature a return to active weather as a low pressure system approaches our region. The system will start out as rain, at times heavy, with temperatures in the 40’s for Sunday morning.

GFS model output for noon Sunday. (via pivotalwx)
GFS model output for noon Sunday. (via pivotalwx)

Then, temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day which could lead to a change-over to snow by the late afternoon or early evening resulting in minor accumulations. As of now, it looks like we will change directly from rain to snow, and, for any impactful accumulations, the snow will have to overcome warm ground temperatures which looks to be a tough hill to climb.

Public reaction to any snow in the forecast. (via tenor)
Average reaction to any snow in the forecast. (via tenor)

At ~4 days out though, much could change about the wintry side of this system, so stay tuned for more updates.

Arctic Blast Arrives for Next Week

Regardless of snow accumulations Sunday afternoon through evening, an arctic blast will blow in Sunday night. Temperatures will likely struggle to reach freezing anytime early next week, although it will at least be dry.

via NCEP
How to read GEFS plumes: grey lines are range of temperatures possible, black line is temperature most likely, blue line is temperature predicted by one GFS model run. (via NCEP)

That’s all I have for today. Stay warm, stay dry, and stay aware by following @wxornotBG for the latest updates.