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Forecast Discussion
Let’s go ahead and dive right in because we have a lot to talk about this morning. First off, let’s talk about the flooding threat.
The entire region (in fact, the entire state of Kentucky) has been placed under a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning.
This is because of a complicated weather set-up that will be heading our way for the day today and it involves a cold front and what’s left of Tropical Depression Cindy.
Cindy will be bringing an incredible amount of moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico as the remnant low tracks up through the Mississippi Valley. This sets the stage for absolutely torrential downpours with storms that form adjacent to the remnant low and that fire up along a cold front that will be approaching from the northwest. In short, an absolute mess on our hands.
Right now, the models have this heavy rain band mainly just north of the BG area. That doesn’t mean we won’t see flash flooding but the main threat would be just to the north. Obviously we’ll be watching the latest trends to see where this band sets up later today. However, flooding isn’t the only thing we have to worry about.
Because of the unique set-up where we have winds spinning around a low pressure center combining with a cold front entering from the northwest, it presents a threat for severe weather. Unless we see substantial morning sunshine, we won’t have a lot of instability to work with, however, we have more than enough in the way of wind shear to work with.
Any isolated thunderstorms that can get going in that environment will be capable of brief damaging wind gusts and isolated spin-up tornadoes. They’ll be the exception rather than the rule, but you’ll still want to stay weather aware through this afternoon.
Today: Flash Flood Watch in effect through Saturday morning. Cloudy skies and breezy with widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Some storms could be strong to severe in the afternoon. Muggy high around 82º. Heavy rain continues into the evening before tapering off overnight. Low around 70º.
- Wake up: ⛈ 75°
- Lunch hour: ⛈ 82°
- Afternoon plans: ⛈ 80°
- Evening time: ⛈ 75°
In short: past today’s mess, the rest of the weekend looks fantastic.
We’ll have high pressure building into the region on Saturday, scouring out the deep humidity and lowering our temperatures to more more acceptable levels. Except for a bit of fog tomorrow morning and the incredibly soaked ground, both weekend days will be fantastic days to go outside.
Tomorrow: Flash Flood Watch in effect through early morning. Patchy morning fog possible, otherwise, clearing skies and lowering humidity with a high near 80º. With clear skies at night, lows will fall to around 60º.
- Wake up: 🌤 65°
- Lunch hour: 🌤 80°
- Afternoon plans: 🌤 81°
- Evening time: 🌤 68°
And Sunday looks the exact same. Literally no difference…I mean, except the data on the calendar.
Sunday: Very similar to Saturday. Low humidity and mostly sunny skies with a high once again topping out near 80º and a nighttime low under clear skies right around 60º.
- Wake up: 🌤 58°
- Lunch hour: 🌤 80°
- Afternoon plans: 🌤 79°
- Evening time: 🌤 70°
Today’s Key Points
But to get to the nice weather, we have to get through today first.
- Flash Flood Watch in effect through Saturday Morning.
- Heavy rain possible throughout the day.
- Severe storms possible late, damaging winds and isolated spin-up tornado will be the main players.
- Here’s a handy reminder of tips you should follow if you find yourself in a flash flooding situation:
That just about does it for me! Thanks for checking into wxornotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for more on this developing weather situation throughout the day today.