What Are the Odds of a Bowling Green White Christmas?

“I’m dreaming of a White Christmas/Just like the ones I used to know” 

(Video from christmas 123100’s channel) The infamous song sang by Bing Crosby rings everywhere around Christmas time. You get it at the grocery store, the mall, restaurants and in your car. This song creates a dichotomy between snow and Christmas that doesn’t really occur elsewhere. Snow is inherently associated with Christmas, and many people only like snow around Christmas time (I am not one).

It also leads to a common question for most meteorologists around this time of year: “Are we gonna have a White Christmas in *Fill in town here*?” Snowfall is common in some portions of the country during December, but much of the country sees the majority of their snowfall in the January-February timeframe. So what are the odds of a Bowling Green White Christmas, you may ask? I’m here to answer this question. The odds are not good at all. In fact, there is only a 5-10% chance of a Bowling Green White Christmas occurring in a given year. Take a look:

Odds don’t increase above 50% until you get into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes states. Much of the country, even areas associated with snowfall, don’t even have high chances of seeing a White Christmas.

Local White Christmas’

What even qualifies as a White Christmas? This may come as a surprise, but there is a specific minimum that must be met to see a White Christmas. A White Christmas occurs if there is at least 1″ of snow on the ground by the first observation of the day. This has only occurred 17 times in the Bowling Green weather records. The last time that a Bowling Green White Christmas occurred was back in 2010, when we saw 4″ of snow by Christmas morning.

It was the most recent officially White Christmas for much of the state, as well. The picture you see above is from my hometown in central KY, which saw 2″ on Christmas in 2010. Some Bowling Green Christmas facts:

• Snowiest: 4.5″ in 1935
• Deepest snow depth: 6″ in 1963
• Coldest: Low of -7°F in 1983

As you can see, Bowling Green doesn’t have snow on Christmas very often, and when we do, it usually isn’t a lot. Even though the odds are low each year, including this one, I will still be dreaming of a White Christmas.

For more info on White Christmas chances for here, and other spots in Kentucky or the United States, be sure to check out the NOAA White Christmas page, and use their interactive map! The map is really cool, and it has a different percentage for each city represented as a dot, and if you click on it for the specific city, you’ll get the percent chance of a White Christmas for that city. Its really cool! This screenshot is just a glimpse at it; go check it out and see for yourself!