at 3:15 PM by Pierce Larkin

Tropical Storm Matthew Forms

This morning, Tropical Storm Matthew got off to a strong start. A former tropical wave who has been watched closely and been forecast to develop into a Hurricane in the Caribbean, Matthew finally closed off his surface circulation this morning.

Tropical Storm Matthew has already organized a good bit this afternoon. h/t NHC
Tropical Storm Matthew has already organized a good bit this afternoon. h/t NHC

During his tropical wave days, Matthew took his time developing, but even yesterday (without a closed surface circulation) looked better than some of the other tropical storms we have seen this year.

Matthew is one of the big reasons why long range forecasting over the next week or so is extremely challenging. I’ll get to that in a second. Lets get some basic facts out.

  • 60 mph sustained winds
  • Minimum pressure of 1008 mb
  • Westward motion at 20 mph
The current extent of Matthew's tropical storm force winds. h/t NHC
The current extent of Matthew’s tropical storm force winds. h/t NHC

Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, and then further intensification is anticipated by next Monday. The NHC forecasts a 105 mph Hurricane by that point, but they do state that their intensity forecast could be in the conservative side.

The forecast track of Tropical Storm Matthew. h/t NHC
The forecast track of Tropical Storm Matthew. h/t NHC

What is going to be interesting to watch is that Tropical Storm Matthew is moving into a region that is very favorable for intensification. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean are high, and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is high across the Caribbean as well. High sea surface temperatures are a necessity for a tropical cyclone to form, and a high amount of heat potential doesn’t hurt either. Wind shear (hurts tropical cyclones) is also forecast to be lower as Matthew heads into the Caribbean. All of this looks to combine to strengthen Tropical Storm Matthew into a Hurricane by this weekend.

This leads me to discuss the difficulties that Matthew presents to forecasting for early next week and beyond. Honestly? Meteorologists don’t exactly know where this thing is gonna end up. There is confidence on Matthew’s track over the next few days, but outside of that, model guidance is sort of all over the place. This has an inherent impact of what the large scale pattern over the eastern US may look like next week.

If a trough is off the east coast next week, and pulls Matthew further east, then it is likely that the pattern will be much, much different than if Matthew was pushed out to sea. We will have to see what happens. Either way, Matthew is a healthy looking storm, and unfortunately, looks to pose a threat to land in the Caribbean. If Matthew looks to head towards the US somewhere, we will have a discussion on that then. For now, though, Meteorologists are just watching Matthew intensify, uncertain of his future path (as is generally the case).