Bowling Green Weather is About to Cool Down

Real-time Bowling Green Weather Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

It was hot again yesterday. I have run out of adjectives to be quite frank. Hot; humid; steamy; etc. There are plenty of adjectives to describe it, but it is simple to just know: it was hot.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville
Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Forecast Summary

Today: Scattered storms, with clearing by the evening. Some storms could be severe. Highs around 88°F. Overnight, look for clear skies, with lows around 56°F.

  • Wake up: 🌤  74°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌤/⛈  88°F
  • Evening time: 🌤  74°F

Tomorrow: Amazing. Sunny, with highs around 79°F. Overnight, look for clear skies with lows falling to around 54°F.

  • Wake up: ☀️  57°F
  • Lunch hour: ☀️  75°F
  • Evening time:☀️  76°F

Monday: Partly cloudy, with highs around 84°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows around 60°F.

  • Bus stop: ☀️  55°F
  • Lunch hour: ☀️  80°F
  • School is out: ☀️ /🌤 84°F
  • Evening time: 🌤  82°F

Discussion

Welp, this discussion as two distinct portions: the thunderstorm discussion, and the GIF forecast portion.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

The latter two days of this forecast look fantastic, and I’ll discuss those after I talk about the storm possibility. First of all, it has been forever since it actually rained in BG. We have had one day of measurable rainfall at the Airport since August 22nd. Today will end that streak.

A strong trough is digging into the central portion of the nation, and is forcing a surface low pressure system. To its south and west, this low pressure system is dragging a cold front eastward along with it.

The 500 mb heights this morning, showing the deep trough across the central portion of the US. h/t SPC
The 500 mb heights this morning, showing the deep trough across the central portion of the US. h/t SPC
The mean sea level pressure, showing the low pressure system to our north. h/t SPC
The mean sea level pressure, showing the low pressure system to our north. h/t SPC

Along this cold front this afternoon, a band of instability is forecast to form as dewpoints rise into the 70s, and temps rise into the upper 80s along and ahead of this. This will provide the fuel for thunderstorms, and will be within close proximity of the major forcing mechanism.

The hi-res NAM builds plenty of instability across the region. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi-res NAM builds plenty of instability across the region. h/t pivotalweather.com

These thunderstorms could be strong, and possibly severe, but I don’t necessarily buy it. First of all, the shear just isn’t there. The guidance is all over the place on it, with the NAM model and the SREF ensembles (based on the NAM model) showing marginal shear at best this afternoon in conjunction with the approximate timing of the line of storms. Secondly, the best forcing is to our north/will move through after the timing of the storms. While the surface cold front will be plenty of forcing itself, the best source of forcing will be out of sync with the cold front itself.

The surface low, and its associated cold and warm fronts. h/t pivotalweather.com
The surface low, and its associated cold and warm fronts. h/t pivotalweather.com

Lastly, the models don’t exactly agree on when this line is going to form. Some have it developing and moving through around 1 PM, while others develop it east of us after 4 PM. There is a chance that we (Bowling Green) don’t even see the line of storms at all. It is a complicated forecast! There are some things that are going for this line of storms potentially being severe, but they don’t outweigh the negatives that I listed above. Overall, I believe the highest threat is to our north.

The SPC, however, does believe that we have a legit severe weather threat, and they are the experts. So, with the line of storms that moves through, anticipate damaging winds being the biggest threat.

The SPC's convective outlook for this afternoon. h/t SPC
The SPC’s convective outlook for this afternoon. h/t SPC

Highs today should reach the upper 80s, but drop into the 70s by this evening. Lows overnight should hit the mid 50s under mostly clear skies. Sunday and Monday? They look awesome. I am way too excited about it. Here are some GIFs that just express my excitement.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com
Makes me so excited that I wanna dance. h/t giphy,com
Makes me so excited that I wanna dance. h/t giphy,com
This is how excited I am. h/t giphy.com
This is how excited I am. h/t giphy.com
Going outside Sunday evening like... (h/t giphy.com)
Going outside Sunday evening like…
(h/t giphy.com)

I am a big fan of fall weather, and the air will definitely have that feel during the evenings over the next couple of nights. Highs during the day on Sunday will rise into the upper 70s, and they’ll hit the low 80s on Monday, with low humidity expected both days. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 50s, which will give us that Fall feel in the air.


Extended Outlook

I don’t have a ton of time to look too deep into the forecast for midweek next week and beyond, but a brief look (and consistency from the past few days) would imply that it isn’t gonna be as hot as it has been recently. There is a lot of uncertainty in what looks to occur next week, so stay tuned with that. However, I don’t see us getting as warm this coming week as we were this past one.


Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!