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Real-time Bowling Green weather radar:
Good evening, Bowling Green! This is a special post to help break down the next winter weather system expected to affect Bowling Green Thursday night through early Saturday morning.
This system has not been as “easy” to hash out as today’s system. While the probability of a winter weather event taking place has become more and more confident, various precipitation types and amounts have made forecasting anything but easy.
With this in mind, take this forecast with a grain of salt. Weather changes, variables change, and model output changes… The team here at Wx or Not BG is working to bring you the latest weather information leading up to the event.
Practically the entire state of Kentucky has been put under a Winter Storm Watch from 6 PM CST Thursday through 6 AM CST Saturday… That’s a 36-hour span. The National Weather Service classifies a Winter Storm Watch as a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Between Thursday and Friday we will be seeing many different types of precipitation, including rain, snow, and freezing rain. The variations in precipitation are due to the organization of temperatures throughout the atmosphere. The graphic below is beneficial in explaining this concept:
So what exactly is happening Thursday and Friday?
A low pressure system will form and deepen (become stronger) as it moves east-northeastward from the Deep South into the Atlantic. This will all occur between late Thursday night and early Saturday.
Beginning around dinner time on Thursday, rain showers will enter our area and pick up into the overnight hours. Because of the placement of the low, those of us here in south central Kentucky will be flirting with the rain-snow line during the course of this system.
Due to the overrunning of warm air (see precipitation graphic above) and plentiful moisture from the ocean, ice accumulations are possible during the transition period between rain and snow. Ice makes for not only slippery roads, but poses the threat of power outages as well. Just a quarter-inch of ice can be dangerous, so be cautious if you must commute Friday morning.
As the low pressure system continues to move in the east- northeasterly direction, precipitation will turn to all snow midday (around noon) on Friday. Snow will be heavy at times, especially in the Bluegrass and Eastern portions of Kentucky as this system draws in moisture from both the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean.
Due to the strong gradient in temperature and pressure across the state, winds will also be strong during the course of this event. Gusts as high as 30 mph could create an even greater travel hazard with blowing snow.
Snow showers will continue into Friday evening and through the overnight hours, with precipitation exiting the state west to east. We may see a stray snow shower early Saturday; otherwise, building high pressure should keep the area dry.
The focus on this event is not so much on the exact amount of precipitation we may receive (accumulation maps to come tomorrow), but rather the impact of various types of precipitation paired with the amount that will fall.
Models are currently showing a significant probability of over 4 inches of snow on Friday across the state, with some areas in the Bluegrass and Eastern regions seeing 8 or 9 inches… With the possibility of over a foot of snow.
As I emphasized at the beginning of this post – take this forecast with a grain of salt. Winter weather is arguably the most difficult weather to forecast due to the variables in play. A change in the low pressure placement could affect what areas receive the heaviest amounts of snow and which may see more ice.
However, it is with great probability that a winter weather event will occur Thursday and Friday, so please remain weather-aware !
And as always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info. Have a great night!