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Real-Time BG Radar:
Today: Mostly cloudy early, with clearing skies. Highs around 58ºF. Tonight: Mostly clear, with lows falling to around 44ºF.
Boy, did yesterday’s weather suck. Yesterday’s weather was so bad.
Walking to class was miserable, sitting in class worse. Cloudy skies make it ridiculously hard to focus as I just want to take a nap the whole time. I feel like everyone else feels the same, though.
Today will be so much nicer. After a morning of left over, low-level moisture creating clouds across the region, we will begin to see the sun break out during the afternoon. While highs will only end up in the upper 50s, the sunshine will be really nice.
Overnight, skies will remain mostly clear, with lows falling into the mid 40s.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny and breezy, with a high of 72ºF. Wed. night: Cloudy, with showers and storms likely. Windy. Lows falling to around 55ºF.
Okay, today is the crazy day. This is the day that models have been honing in on for about a week or so as the day that we would see our first big time November storm get wound up.
Before I get into the severe weather threat, we will see much more pleasant weather. Highs will rocket into the 70s under partly sunny skies, and strong southerly winds. Some gusts could exceed 30 mph across the region.
Now, overnight, it’s gonna be a much different storm (other than the winds). We are looking at a potent mid and upper level low pressure system ejecting out of the southwestern US, and forcing a deep surface low pressure system that will move northeast, and strengthen rapidly. This will drag a strong cold front to its south, and along it, a likely strong to severe line of thunderstorms that will race eastward.
Now, what are our severe chances here? A lot of that is dependent upon the amount of energy the atmosphere has available. Severe thunderstorm development, and strength, is based upon how much energy the atmosphere has to use, and how much wind shear is present. We will likely have an enormous amount of wind shear available, but not much energy. In these scenarios, the atmospheric dynamics and wind shear can often overcome that lack of energy, but we’ll see.
At this time, I believe that the highest severe weather threat is to our west. That is where there is a better combination of wind shear, forcing and atmospheric energy in place to cause severe thunderstorm development. That doesn’t mean that I don’t see an isolated damaging wind threat here, but the threat is much higher to our west.
Outside of this, we could see some stronger wind gusts likely approaching 30-40 mph as the front crashes on through. Lows will fall into the mid 50s, with showers and isolated storms.
Thursday: Much calmer. Breezy conditions still likely, with partly cloudy skies. Highs around 56ºF. Thur. night: Mostly clear, with lows falling to around 35ºF.
A much, much quieter day is in store for Thursday.
After that cold front moves through, it will usher in much cooler and drier air to the region. Because the low pressure system to our north will be epically strong, and will be absorbing even more energy from the northwest, the wind field and pressure gradient are going to be tight across the region, leading to breezy conditions.
Expect for winds to be gusting in the 20 to 30 mph range throughout the day, with highs only reaching the mid 50s across the region, This, plus the winds, will create pretty non-fun outdoor conditions.
Overnight, look for clear skies, and lows falling into the low to mid 30s.
Well, that is all I have for ya! Stay up to date on the latest on the severe weather threat Wednesday night by following @WxOrNotBG on Twitter.