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Real-time BG Radar:
This Afternoon – Scat’d Storms – High 80˚ / Tonight – Scat’d Storms – Low 62˚
Skies has somewhat cleared with the passing of this morning’s convection, which has primed our atmosphere for another potential round of strong/severe storms late this afternoon through this evening. A Severe T-Storm watch is in effect for Butler County until 7pm tonight. All other areas should not ignore the severe threat.
A line of stout convection is currently tracking southeast toward the area, and we’ll have to keep a close eye on this feature to see if it’s able to hold together. Take a glance at the radar provided atop the post to see where it’s currently located.
At the moment, plentiful instability and shear suggests conditions will be able to sustain the line of storms as it passes through the area. Should this occur, main threats will be damaging wind, frequent lightning and large hail.
It’s worth noting that the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded us to a Slight Risk for severe storms for this afternoon into tonight, with a 15% probability of severe wind or hail occurring with 25 miles of any given location:
Please stay aware of the weather threat through this time. As always, we’ll be updating frequently at @WxOrNotBG, @wkuCHAOS & @WarrenCountyWx as this event unfolds.
Wed 4/8 – Scat’d storms – High of 78ºF / Wed Night – Partly Cloudy – Low of 61ºF.
There are a lot of variables that make forecasting from midweek on very challenging and confusing, with multiple rounds of showers and storms to blame.
Wednesday looks to be very tough, from a forecast perspective. Looking at the models, there still isn’t an exact consensus on what will unfold, with the NAM and its Hi-Res affiliate continuing to butt heads on how our atmosphere will behave. The latest NAM favors the idea of showers and storms by 1pm Wednesday:
Part of the issue with this forecast is that our atmosphere will be very moisture-rich, and this will allow thunderstorms to blow up along previous boundaries set up by the storms that occurred days before.
If we get some significant thunderstorm activity Wednesday morning and afternoon, it will significantly hamper any afternoon heating that we can reach. I see highs getting into the upper 70s easily with some sunshine, but that may change.
As we head into the overnight hours, we will see some clouds across the area ahead of the strengthening and approaching low pressure system. A few storms will be possible as well. Winds will increase from the south and west, and thus, lows shouldn’t drop much further than the lower 60s.
Thu 4/9 – Partly Cloudy – High 81º / Thu Night: Strong Storms Likely – Low 65º
Well, the low pressure system that has been influencing out weather as of late will finally make its approach on the region on Thursday. It will begin strengthening as it moves into the Great Lakes region of the country, and will drag a cold front along with it.
This will spark showers and storms out ahead of the front, some of which could be severe. This front will act to make things mostly cloudy across the region, but with a southerly breeze temps should easily get into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
The latest SPC Outlook has kept the western tier of the area under a ‘Slight Risk‘ for severe weather Thursday night into Friday morning. This mean that there’s a 5-15% probability that severe weather will occur with 25 miles of any given location:
As we head into the night, the cold front itself will begin to move through. Though it will have quite a bit of wind energy associated with it, storms will have very little instability to work with, and I think the chances are slim at best. Highest threats will be damaging winds and large hail.
We shall see. Lows will drop into the 60s Thursday night with the thunderstorms hanging around.
That will wrap up the afternoon forecast post. Remember to stay connected to @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for the latest real-time weather info.