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*Flood Watch from 6 PM Tuesday thru 12 PM Wednesday for the entire area*
An Areal Flood Watch is issued for flooding that develops gradually, usually from prolonged and persistent moderate to heavy rainfall. This results in a gradual ponding or buildup of water in low-lying, flood prone areas, as well as small creeks and streams.
*Winter Storm Watch from 6 am Wednesday until 12 pm Thursday for all of south central Kentucky*
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations. The criteria for this watch to be issued is confidence in the forecast for potential snow/ice accumulations of 4+”.
Today: Dreary, rainy, cloudy, sad, etc. High of 62ºF. Tonight: Heavy rainfall. 1-2″ of rainfall possible. Low of 37ºF.
You know how to old saying goes. “Give a meteorology student an upcoming winter storm, and they can’t concentrate on any class.” You don’t know that one? Oh. Well, I did just make it up. But it is true! I hardly foresee myself getting anything useful accomplished today or tomorrow…
A strong area of low pressure will be moving to our northwest as the day progresses. Associated moisture with this system will increase over southern Kentucky, causing hit and miss showers and storms to impact the area.
We’ll keep the rain scattered in nature through early evening, with widespread showers and storms taking over as we get into tonight. The 4km NAM Simulated Radar Model below is valid for 10pm tonight, and shows the wet stuff becoming more abundant:
Before this occurs, temps are forecast to quickly rise into the low to mid 60s this afternoon! This is illustrated by the temp model below, valid for 3pm. Quite impressive:
This is quite an exciting development. Very exciting, actually! The bad news is that this will be a very short-lived development. By short lived, I mean it’ll be in the 60s for a solid 3 or 6 hours. The heavy rainfall and approaching arctic air will overshadow this significantly as we progress into the latter part of the night.
Though shower activity will be prevalent throughout the day, we’ll really see an uptick overnight in convection across the region. Thunder and lightning, in addition to heavy rain is anticipated. Total rain amounts should range between 1-2+” across south central Kentucky. Lows will bottom out around 37˚, right before daybreak…
Wednesday – Insanity. Rain, to sleet and snow – High of 60ºF↓. Significant snow/sleet accumulations likely / Wed. night: Sleet to snowfall. The snow could be heavy. Low of 20ºF. Significant snow accumulations possible.
We’ll be under a Winter Storm Watch during this entire time period, so that is pretty solid…
This day is gonna be absolute chaos. We are gonna go from one season to another within 6 hours. I will try to break it down as simply as I can for you. Here is what we are looking at:
- Heavy rainfall begins to transition to sleet/freezing rain on Wednesday.
- Sleet last for a bit, and another wave of heavy precip comes in by Wednesday evening.
- This second wave could feature sleet or snow, depending on how cold we get on Wednesday.
- Models are split on surface temps, but no matter what, we are likely looking at a high impact winter storm effecting the region Wednesday into Thursday.
Now, there is significant variability on what, where, and how much will fall. We know there will be a lot of moisture to work with, and plenty of cold air coming in to help. I am of the belief that Bowling Green could see significant accumulations of both snow and sleet.
The biggest issue lies in how fast the cold air gets in here to change rain to sleet and then eventually snowfall. Areas to our north could receive another thumping, while we may see significant sleet. However, we could see more snow than sleet. All of that has yet to be determined, and makes for a very challenging forecast.
Accumulation amounts of 3-6+” look plausible with this setup, however, how much freezing rain and sleet we see before the changeover to all snow occurs will greatly determine our accumulation totals. Regardless, travel will be a nightmare when we see the changeover take place.
Despite all of this, temps will be ~60˚ when we hit midnight Wednesday, and this is why I have the “high” listed as so. Once that front passes, we’ll see temperatures plummet throughout the day across the region. By Wednesday evening, they look as if they could be in the mid 20s…
Temps won’t stop there overnight. They will continue to plummet, as snowfall continues across the region. Lows will eventually bottom out in the upper teens and lower 20s across the region.
This is a difficult forecast to make, so please stay aware of the changes that may be made in the future and don’t freak out when they are made.
Thursday: Winter Storm Watch until noon. Snowfall ending, with a high of 20ºF. Thur. night: Gradual clearing. Lows of -2ºF.
First of all, I hate highlighting a high of 20 degrees with the color red. It gives me false hope that somehow, some way, 20ºF on Thursday is gonna be warmer than 20ºF any other day. Anyways, we finally look to get a break this week, and it looks to come in the form of a day named “Thursday”.
By this point in the week, meteorologists across the region will need a well-deserved pat on the back from the public, no matter the amount of wintry precipitation. Highs will struggle to get above 20ºF, and lows will dip down to the single digits, perhaps subzero values Thursday night. With a fresh snowish-mix pack on the ground, temps should plummet.
Please, pay attention to the forecasts over the next 24 hours. This looks as if it could be our second significantly impactful winter storm within one month, and we need to be equally as prepared for issues with this one as we were with the President’s day system.
Follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx on Twitter for the latest on the winter storm across the region. Should warnings be issued, we will have an update out for you.