March Thaw On The Way?

Wx Or Not contributor Pierce Larkin published a great post earlier about why winter needs to end. I think we can all agree with him in that accord. It’s been cold and dry for a majority of the winter, then we got our big event that proves the BG Bubble is quite susceptible to events, thus, it’s time winter comes to a close. Right?

Perhaps the models agree. I think a thaw may be in sight for some of the region towards the beginning of March. Is this set in stone? Haha, that’s funny; of course it’s not. Anyone trying to forecast 10 days out in advance is a lunatic. But, the pattern suggested by most models is indicative of a warm up in the first week of March. Let me break it down.

The above image displays the current jet stream configuration across the United States. A persistent trough to the east of the region has kept the area under northwest flow for several days/weeks now. However, at times a shortwave trough will develop to the west that looks to bring promising warm air to the region. Upon arrival to the area, another piece of energy follows the “Cold Air Train” shunting the warm air to the south of the region….which keeps us cold.

But, there may be some relief in sight. A few models are on board with changing the jet stream configuration that would allow warm air to infiltrate the area during the first week of March.

In the above image, there is no longer a persistent trough across the eastern United States. Instead, there is now ridging in place across the Atlantic, with a trough located along the west coast. This allows southwest flow into the region. The southern stream is no longer being shunted south, in fact on could argue the southern stream is shunting the northern stream further north. This is evident as you go lower in the atmosphere as well.

Once again, in the above image the southern and northern stream are both out of the southwest across the region. This will allow warmer temperatures to overspread the region. Again, this is due to the formation of a trough along the west coast and ridge along the east coast.

Low level maps continue to display southwest flow, and even south-southwest flow at times. This will advect warm air into the region, allow temperatures to increase once more. In the image below, it is evident that a low pressure system will likely form in the vicinity of the region. In order for us to warm up effectively, we’d need to be inside the warm sector of that low pressure system.

As of now, we’re in the warm sector. However, we are still over a week from this all taking shape, so of course there are go to plenty of model changes between now and then. However, it is easy to mention that the upper level pattern remains favorable for some warm weather during the first week of March. If this warm up does occur, how long will it stick around? That’s the million dollar question right now I think. But, if I were a betting man, I’d wager not very long.