at 9:09 AM by Mallory Schnell

Typhoon Hagupit Could Hit the Philippines

Typhoon Hagupit is intensifying in the Pacific and could threaten the Philippines in the next few days. Hagupit is currently the equivalent of a Category 3 storm and could potentially become a super typhoon, or the equivalent of a Category 4 or 5 storm, by Friday. The typhoon looks as though it will soon undergo rapid intensification, with air being forced upward within its core circulation.

Hagupit passed south of the Yap Islands Wednesday night local time (15 hours ahead of US EST) , and is moving to the west-northwest. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Republic of Palau Thursday, before heading toward the Philippines as a major storm Friday. While it is remains uncertain whether Hagupit will make a direct hit to the Philippines, The Weather Channel has predicted two track scenarios:

1) Little impact: Hagupit stalls just east of the Philippines late this week, then drifts slowly north into early next week. Increasing wind shear, thanks to a surge of cooler, drier near-surface north to northeast winds from the Asian continent and the southern fringe of the jet stream would quickly weaken the cyclone. In this scenario, Hagupit would have little direct impact in the Philippines, except for localized flash flooding from outer rainbands and high surf along the east coast of the archipelago.

2) Severe impact: Hagupit slows down, but continues its west-northwest track into the Philippines, potentially still as a formidable typhoon this weekend. Impacts including significant coastal flooding due to storm surge and battering waves, as well as destructive winds could be felt in some Haiyan-affected areas. In addition, if Hagupit moves slowly, torrential rainfall would become a major threat, with life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides possible.

And to prevent future confusion, “Hagupit” is the international name for the cyclone; once it enters the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), the storm will be referred to as “Ruby” by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.