AER Winter Forecast - @wxornotBG

The Capital Weather Gang interviewed Judah Cohen from the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) firm about the upcoming winter.

“Cohen, who directs seasonal forecasting efforts at the firm Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), a unit of Verisk Climate, discovered the linkage between the behavior of Eurasian fall snow cover and eastern U.S. winters nearly 15 years ago.”

Judah Cohen has an impressive track record for winter forecasts, nailing many of the forecasts and getting pretty close on all the others.

“Cohen’s method proposes that when snow increases rapidly and over a large area over Eurasia during October, it is a strong indication that a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will average in its negative phase during winter. When the AO is negative, it favors cold air outbreaks into the eastern U.S. and western Europe, that can also set the stage for snowstorms.”

Here is Cohen’s Winter temperature outlook:

Via NSF: "Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere in Dec-Jan-Feb 2014/2015 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting cold for much of the Central and Eastern United States and Northern Eurasia, with warm in Western North America, Southern Europe and North Africa."(Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.) — AER Winter Temperature Anomaly Outlook. Contained in Article by the Capital Weather Gang

To check out the rest of the article from the Capital Weather Gang about Cohen’s winter prediction methods click Here.

Don’t expect these cold temperatures anytime soon here in southern Kentucky! The next 10 – 14 days will most likely be warmer than average across much of the area. However, colder air looks to move into the region by mid to late month!

Climate Prediction Center 8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook — Climate Prediction Center 8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook