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Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:
Today – Rain – High 42º / Tonight – Rain to Snow – Low 32º
6am 32º – 9am 35º – 12pm 40º – 3pm 42º – 6pm 37º
We’ll start off the day cloudy and cold, with rain chances moving into the area by mid morning. Don’t be surprised if some sleet mixes in. This precipitation will cut a path to the north and east this evening as a result of a low pressure system to our southeast.
The rain will be moderate at times with total rainfall amounts of up to a half inch possible. A cold front will swing through during the afternoon, with another one on its heels set to move in early Monday morning. All precipitation should remain rain through late this evening.
The surface model below is valid for 6pm today, and helps paint the picture of what we’ll be dealing with. The low pressure system to our south will track northeast, pulling warm, moist to the northwest (COLD) side of the low.
With a much colder airmass in place over the area, the moist, less dense air will be forced up and over the airmass in place. When the moisture falls through this cold airmass, we’ll get the chance at seeing wrap-around snow early Monday.
Monday – Snow Showers – High 34º / Mon Night – Partly Cloudy, COLD – Low 18º
A brief period of snow will be possible Monday morning. Cold air will filter into the area from the northwest early, helping transition the rain to sleet & snow. As for now, only minor accumulations look plausible, however, the timing will be close to the morning rush hour.
A brief, heavy snow could accumulate on the roads as road temps sway in the low-mid 30’s during the Monday morning commute. Be sure to allow yourself extra time, and drive with caution as black ice and slick spots could result in hazardous travel.
Here are the latest details on our snow potential:
Latest model data suggests the cold air will have a tough time moving this far south, keeping Bowling Green and surrounding areas under the influence of mostly rain through early Monday. The heaviest snowfall will be located to our north, along the Ohio River.
The NAM simulated radar model below shows abundant moisture at 6am Monday morning with banding setting up somewhere between Bowling Green and the Ohio River. Banding is a thin area of intense snowfall that usually results in the highest snow totals.
At 3am the NAM keeps the cold air just to our west, meaning the precipitation will be mostly rain until sometime after 5am. The GFS model begins to transition the rain to snow between 3am and 5am Monday morning.
The latest NAM model run shifts the heaviest axis of snow much farther south than previous runs. The heaviest snow placement is now south of the river, stretching from just north of Warren County through Cincinnati.
This may mean the NAM is beginning to come into agreement with the GFS, which has consistently placed the heaviest snow along and south of the river. However, future runs still need to be watched carefully as the NAM hasn’t had the best grasp on this system.
The GFS has been the most consistent and once again places the heaviest snow near the river.
The Weather Prediction Center shows a slight risk of 4″ of snow just to our north, with a moderate risk along the Ohio River.
Thoughts: The rain/snow line typically has a tough time reaching south central Kentucky before the precipitation has moved out. The models have slowly trended north over the past several days and seemingly have settled on the Ohio River as the prime location for accumulation.
Therefore, areas to the north of Warren County have a decent shot at seeing accumulating snow. This would mean those of you in Butler County, especially the north side, stand the greatest chance at seeing snow collect on the ground.
Minimal accumulations (0-1″…2″ if you’re lucky) look likely Monday morning for Bowling Green. Remember, a quick changeover to snow before or during the morning commute is possible, which could make for dangerous driving conditions. Aside from the snow potential, winds will gust 15 – 25 mph, making the cold even colder!
Timing: Rain is expected to make a brief change to snow between 4am and 7am.
Accumulations:
***As always, winter weather forecasts are SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Keep in mind that ANY minor track shift of the low pressure system responsible for this weather event could drastically change snow amounts Monday morning.
As we continue to analyze the latest data & compare it to the reality of what’s actually occurring, we’ll come to grips on this setup. Stay connected to us here at http://WxOrNotBG.com for the latest weather updates. Our team will be updating frequently.
Tuesday – Sunny, RECORD COLD – High 28º / Tues Night – Partly Cloudy, COLD– Low 18
Tuesday will be downright COLD! High temperatures may not even make it out of the 20’s. Look at all the blue on the NAM’s forecast surface temperatures. It is valid for 3pm Tuesday afternoon. if this happens, and we believe that it will, we’ll be setting records for the coldest November 18th on record!
That does it for this morning, folks. As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG and@WarrenCountyWX on twitter for the latest real-time weather information. Enjoy your weekend!