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Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:
Today 10/13 – Isolated Strong Storms – High 80° / Tonight – Scattered Severe Storms – Low 69°
Good morning! I’m going to be completely honest, we have a pretty complicated forecast to sift through today. We’re waking up to some showers and thunderstorms across the region. These formed to our southwest last night and will work northeast over the region during the morning hours. This round of storms should remain non-severe in nature.
The HRRR model believes we’ll keep lingering activity around through mid morning. This particular run is valid for 10am:
The aforementioned storms should begin to exit the region by midday. A few isolated showers may meander, but the heavy stuff should be north and west of the area. Now, the forecast get’s a bit interesting…
The rest of the forecast depends on the amount of clearing we see this afternoon. If we get mostly sunny skies, our temperatures will warm up dramatically. I wouldn’t be shocked to see highs in the 80s due to the southerly winds into the region.
If this occurs, our instability values will receive a nice boost, meaning thunderstorms this evening and overnight will have more to work with…in other words, chances for strong/severe storms will rise.
What if storms form earlier in the afternoon? That’s a tough question to answer. All the models agree there will likely be little to no afternoon and evening convection across the area. However, all the models also agree that there won’t be too much of a cap across the region.
So what does this tell us? Well, the models aren’t picking up on a lifting mechanism during the afternoon and evening hours because the strong cold front will still be to the west of the region. However, the morning storms may lay out outflow boundaries, which can act as mini cold fronts themselves. Most of the time the models aren’t high enough resolution to pick up on these small details.
With that being said, I’m going to stick with the model consensus and say we may see an isolated storm in the afternoon and evening. If a storm can form in this environment, it will be capable of producing heavy rain, large hail, strong winds, and potentially a tornado.
The best chance of this occurring will be to the south and west of the region. The SPC has outlined Bowling Green and surrounding areas in a Slight (think enhanced) Risk of severe weather today, as seen on the convective outlook above.
The more significant threat of severe weather appears to be during the overnight hours. A large squall line will form to the west of the region. This will move into the Bowling Green area during the early morning hours on Tuesday. The storms will be capable of producing strong winds, isolated hail, and a few isolated, brief tornadoes. Again, this all depends on the amount of sunshine we receive in the afternoon hours today.
Tuesday 10/14 – Strong AM Storms – High 70° / Tue Night – Isolated Showers – Low 54°
**Flash Flood Watch in effect through 7pm Tuesday evening for Butler & Warren County**
Strong to severe storms will be possible to start off the day. There is a chance the aforementioned squall line will slow down as the low pressure system to the north begins to stall out. If this occurs, then some intensification will be possible potentially over Bowling Green, before the storms move off to the east of the region. This could lead to flash flooding throughout our Tuesday.
It’s also worth mentioning that a few severe thunderstorms will remain possible during the morning hours. Again, the threats will be strong winds, isolated hail, and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk of severe weather.
Expect these storms to move to the east of the region during the afternoon and evening hours. Lingering showers will be possible the rest of the day. Highs will only be around 70° after the passage of the storms and cold front. As the front continues to move to the east of the region, isolated showers will be possible. Lows will be in the mid 50s.
Wednesday 10/15 – Isolated Showers – High 65° / Wed Night – Isolated Showers – Low 49°
The strong low pressure system that has caused the weather and forecast headaches will continue to do its thing as the system occludes. This means the low pressure system is beginning to cut itself off of the upper level dynamics that keep the system healthy. Thus, the clouds and isolated showers will stick around for the next several days due to this cutoff low pressure system. Highs will remain cool in the mid 60s. Yep, I agree…
Isolated showers will remain possible during the overnight hours on Wednesday night. Lows will be around 50°.
That should wrap up this forecast post. Be sure to take shelter in the event that a warning is issued for your area. Also, have multiple ways of being informed should any warnings be issued. As always, stay updated with the latest real-time weather info by following @WxOrNotBG on Twitter. Have a safe day.