What’s Going On In The Tropics?

It’s been awhile since our last look at the tropics and not much has changed. The Atlantic remains relatively quiet for now,  and in the latest update from the National Hurricane Center there are no hurricanes, tropical storms or depressions. There are two areas in the Atlantic Ocean the NHC will be monitoring for further development.

Both of these disturbances have only a slight chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the next several days. The main reason for the lack of tropical activity in the Atlantic over the past few weeks has been the presence of the Saharan Air Layer.

All of the dust is the atmosphere means that there is dry air in place over the tropics which is not conducive for tropical development. Dust has even been noted in southeast Florida.

Meanwhile, an active tropical season continues in the eastern Pacific. There are now two tropical storms that have formed and are moving west over open waters. Tropical Storm Lowell is currently 700 miles west of Mexico and is a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Lowell is forecast to move northwest and weaken into a depression over the weekend.

Tropical Storm Karina is located  more than 1000 miles east of Hawaii and also has winds of 50 mph. Karina is forecast to succumb to unfavorable wind shear and not move much over he next few days before weakening into a depression and moving northeast.

Even though this hurricane season has been quiet so far in the Atlantic with only two named storms thus far, Atlantic hurricane season runs until November 30.  On average, the peak of the hurricane season does not occur until early September. Check out this graph from the NHC showing tropical cyclone frequency throughout the season: