Thursday Afternoon Update

Real Time Radar:

This Afternoon – Partly Cloudy– High 82° / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 60°

3pm 80º – 6pm 76º – 9pm 67º – 12am 64º – 3am 62º – 6am 60º

Good afternoon, today’s forecast is still on track with an area of high pressure to our north keeping things quiet.  Currently, temperatures are in the upper 70s with low dew points that will help to make it feel very comfortable outside.

We’ve seen some cumulus clouds pop up across the area this afternoon with widespread stratus clouds to our southwest. These stratus clouds are a result of an area of low pressure currently in Texas that will move east over the next few days. We will see an increase in clouds tonight as this low gets a bit closer with temperatures dropping down to around 60°.

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Visible Satellite Imagery valid at 2:15pm CST. (Courtesy: NASA)

Friday 7/18 – Mostly Cloudy, Isolated PM Thunderstorms – High 81° / Fri Night –Mostly Cloudy, Sct’d Thunderstorms – Low 62°

Tomorrow this area of low pressure will near the Arklatex region with a stationary front extending to the east. Storms will fire all throughout the southeast along this stationary front tomorrow, and even though current thinking is that most of the precipitation will stay to the south, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in our area during the afternoon.

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Predicted Surface Map valid at 7pm Friday. (Courtesy: WPC)

Otherwise, we will see mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the lower 80s tomorrow. Rain chances will increase tomorrow night with lows falling into the lower 60s. Total rainfall accumulation throughout the day looks to be less than 0.25″ .

Saturday 7/19 – Sct’d Thunderstorms – High 83° / Sat Night – Mostly Cloudy, Iso’d Thunderstorms – Low 67°

This low will continue to slowly move east on Saturday and we will see very similar weather to Friday with precipitation coverage a bit better as southerly winds usher in more moisture. Model guidance is currently in disagreement with the timing and intensity of precipitation during the day.

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h/t reactiongifs.com

 The NAM is predicting heavy rain early on Saturday and the GFS is predicting isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. For now, the GFS solution looks a bit more reasonable as this precipitation will have to fight an uphill battle against some unseasonably dry air over the next few days.

Expect around a quarter inch of rain to fall on Saturday with isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing overnight.

Outside of any showers and storms expect mostly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 80s on Saturday. Cloud cover will keep our low a bit more mild than we have seen lately as temperatures drop into the upper 60s Saturday night.

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon, get out and enjoy today’s weather as today may be the last day without rain to dodge for awhile. For real-time weather updates be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter. Have a great rest of the day.