Arthur Reaches Hurricane Strength

As we mentioned yesterday, there was potential that Arthur would intensify to hurricane strength.  This morning, that came true.  Hurricane Arthur becomes the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, with max sustained winds of ~80mph.  Here is what Arthur looks like via visible satellite:

This tropical system is currently crawling at ~10mph northeast along the coast.  The forecast track over the next 5 days is provided by the image below:

The following graphic displays the probability of locations along the coast experiencing hurricane force winds (≥74mph).  As you’ll see, those along the Carolina coast have the highest probability of seeing these winds become reality.  Those along the northern portion of South Carolina’s coast are under a Tropical Storm Warning, while nearly all of North Carolina’s coast are under a Hurricane Warning.

Aside from the fierce winds, a major concern will be excessive rainfall and affiliated storm surge.  The following model displays forecast rainfall amounts through early Sunday morning.  As you’ll note, areas along the east coast can expect anywhere between 5-7″ of the wet stuff in a very short period of time:

With this type of heavy rain, storm surge values are anticipated at 3-6ft, making coastal flooding a real possibility.  Do you know anyone vacationing along the coast?  It wouldn’t be a bad idea to contact them and make sure they know the circumstances.