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Real-time radar:
Today 6/1 – Mostly Cloudy / Afternoon Showers & T-storms – High 86° // Tonight – Mostly Cloudy / Isolated Showers– Low 69°
6am 67˚ – 9am 77˚ – 12pm 84˚ – 3pm 86˚ – 6pm 83˚ – 9pm 78˚
Good Sunday morning everyone. Today looks like much of the same old, same old for us in Bowling Green and much of the entire region. Personally I think we’re so used to the weather being more dynamic and changing at the drop of the hat that persistence in the forecast is throwing us all for a loop. However, the jet stream is trying to make a return to the contiguous U.S. and as a result our weather pattern will be a bit more dynamic the next few days. Finally, some normality.
Yesterday we had a weak boundary pass to our southwest with northeast winds helping keep showers out of the area. That boundary is history and southerly flow will overtake the area. High pressure off of the east coast is allowing for winds to shift out of the south and bringing the return of deeper gulf moisture. Added moisture will result in the instability needed for afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Ohio Valley and bring the isolated threat for heavy downpours and lightning throughout the day today. Everyone reading this right now:
Expect temperatures to be as they’ve been for a week now; highs into the mid and upper 80’s and dewpoints to be in the upper 60’s and near 70 degrees. Winds will be 5-10mph out of the south and skies will be mostly dominated by cloud cover. Areas with more sunshine an no precipitation will likely see the warmest temps and heat index values around 90 degrees. Here’s a surface map for today at 1pm from the WPC depicting the southerly flow from high pressure along the eastern seaboard and our area within green shading; the areas most likely to see precipitation.
Tonight will be another cool down and showers and storms lingering in the area should diminish with time. South winds will maintain throughout the night and will result in slightly warmer overnight lows which should remain in the upper 60’s and near 70 degrees across the region. Overall, pretty quiet except those who experience precipitation. As I’ve said many times before, plan activities today with the understanding that showers and storms are likely but exact locations is impossible to tell until they happen. Use a radar tool and exercise lightning safety precautions if necessary.
Monday 6/2 – Scattered Thunderstorms – High 86º / Sunday Night – Mostly Cloudy; Scattered Thunderstorms – Low 70º
Monday will be a bit of the same, but as you see in the above surface map a developing area of low pressure will begin to strengthen and move to the northeast as jet stream dynamics have made a return to the country. A trough axis extending from central Canada down into the plains is bringing the necessary upper level support to initiate cyclogenesis near Kansas and Nebraska on Monday which will aid severe storms in that region. The developing cyclone will move closer into our area into the day on Monday but most dynamics will stay to our north.
However, areas of thunderstorms and precipitation will be in greater coverage on Monday as our moist unstable atmosphere will have more lifting at their disposal throughout the day, mostly due to increases in relative vorticity in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere which stem from the storm system moving to our northwest. High pressure to the east will continue to promote moist, unstable flow into the region as well. The surface map below illustrates what to expect at Monday at 7am across the country; area of low pressure centered over Minnesota with a cold front extending into Kansas which will aid the development of thunderstorm complexes.
Expect temperatures to rise into the mid 80’s once again with dewpoints in the upper 60’s and near 70 degrees. Skies will be more cloudy with winds out of the south and southwest at 10-15mph. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms could extend more into the evening hours. Just be weather aware and stay tuned to trusted sources of weather information if some storms become severe. Evening and overnight hours will also contain the threat for scattered thunderstorms. The overall outlook for Sunday and Monday aren’t that bad, don’t get the wrong idea. Enjoy the weather when you have the opportunity.
Anymore discussion will be unnecessary. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter. Wishing everyone a great Sunday!